The outsider quoted Tether Consultant Gabor Gurbacs as saying that bitcoin was not expensive between $64,000 and $65,000, and that current prices were more reflective of shocks than of top signals. In his view, there had been significant changes in market participants, sources of funding and the regulatory environment compared to the previous cycle.

Market structure is different from 2021

The core judgement of Gurbacs is that the market base has been restructured, although the price has returned to the nearest zone. The high-level phase in 2021 was driven more by emotions, leverage and regulatory uncertainty; by 2026, spot ETF, institutional access and a clearer policy environment had changed the pricing context of Bitcoin.

In his view, if highly leveraged speculative positions continued to be cleared, the subsequent price discovery process in the market might be closer to real demand rather than dominated by short-line sentiment.

ETF Continued Inflow

Data in support of this view are derived mainly from the continued net inflow of spot bitcoin ETF. SoSoValue data show that on July 20th, spot bitcoin ETF net-inflowed $226.92 million a day, at a price of approximately $65142.

Last week, on 5 trading days, the products were recorded in a positive flow, with a single-day scale of between $79 million and $181 million. The previous outflows in June had been largely offset by recent purchases.

  • July 20th Single-day net inflow: $226.92 million
  • Last week, five consecutive trading days recorded net inflows.
  • Bitcoin ETF management assets close to $791.6 billion

The agency's more focused on seismology.

It is also mentioned that Bitstamp charts show that Bitcoin was lagging behind from a high of about $126,000 to support between $5.57 million and $582 million, and then returned to the vicinity of $6.42 million. Indicators, including the daily RSI, are interpreted as increasing buyer power.

Under this narrative, $64,000 to $65,000 is no longer considered a high-risk area in the previous cycle, more like a shock zone where institutional funds are willing to continue to be allocated. According to this, Wall Street funds are considering this position as a new absorption belt rather than a short-term top.