Following the escalation of tensions in the United States and Iraq, the energy market was recalculated as a supply risk in the Middle East. Brent crude oil broke by $91 per barrel on 21 July, then fell back between $88 and $89; WTI crude oil also stood at $84 and then fell around $81 to $83.

The Holmuze Channel is focused.

Traders are currently most concerned with transport security in the Strait of Hormuz. About 20 per cent of the global supply of crude oil requires this sea lane, and once shipping is blocked, the pace of exports, freight and insurance costs can rise rapidly.

The military strikes by the United States against Iran, combined with threats from the Iranian side regarding Gulf shipping, have raised concerns in the market about restrictions on the export of Gulf crude oil. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq are highly dependent on this route for the export of crude oil.

Goldman Sachs gave a 120-dollar scenario.

According to Goldman Sachs analysts, if transport disturbances around the Strait of Hormuz persisted, Brent crude oil could rise to more than $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter. At the same time, however, the Bank stressed that this was not its baseline projection.

The benchmark scenario for Goldman Sachs continues to be the assumption that the situation in the Middle East will ease. In this scenario, the Bank expects that the average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter will be approximately $80 per barrel and the average price next year will be approximately $75.

Inflationary pressure is rising again.

According to Goldman Sachs, the decline in global crude oil stocks in the second quarter made markets more vulnerable to supply shocks. The Bank also mentioned that further obstruction of Red Sea transport would continue to put pressure on the oil market.

The cumulative increase in international oil prices since this year has been about 45 per cent. If Brent's crude oil remains above $91, market concerns about a rebound in inflation may rise again, and will further complicate future Fed interest rates.