The White House is reported to be preparing a meeting for the encryption industry and forecast market executives, scheduled for 19 August. After the news came out, the probability on Polymucket that the United States' CLARITY Act would become law by 2026 rose to 21 per cent, up from 17 per cent the previous day.

The bill is still in the Senate.

The official agenda and list of participants for this meeting have not yet been published. It was mentioned that some of the executives of traditional financial institutions could also participate, but the presence of United States President Trump remained unclear. The timing of the meeting was noted because the United States Senate was currently in an August recess, while the encryption industry was pushing Congress to complete digital asset market legislation as soon as possible.

The aim of the CLARITY Act is to establish a federal-level regulatory division of labour for digital assets. In the current direction of discussion, the digital commodity spot market will be primarily regulated by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while assets identified as securities will remain under the jurisdiction of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The bill was adopted in July 2025 by 294 votes to 134, with 78 Democrats voting in favour. By May 2026, the Senate Banking Commission had further advanced the Senate version by 15 votes to 9, but the bill has not yet entered the House for a vote.

The differences are focused on the moral and stability prize.

Before adjourning the meeting, the leader of the Senate majority party, John Thune, stated that members of Parliament did not have sufficient time to complete the debate and amendment process. The Senate is expected to resume its session on 14 September, but it will then have to deal with the government-funded negotiations and the medium-term election agenda, and the window available to move the bill forward is not broad.

The negotiations are currently mainly marked by several sensitive elements, including the encryption of government officials ' asset holdings and income restrictions, a stable currency incentive mechanism, decentrization of financial provisions and financial crime control requirements. These differences determine whether the bill can garner cross-party support.

In accordance with the Senate rules, supporters need 60 votes to break the lengthy debate process and move to final consideration. The current 53 seats of the Republican party means that the bill still needs to be supported by several Democrats, even if there is a general unity within the Republican party.

One of the outstanding issues is the restriction on the access of the President, the Vice-President, parliamentarians and other senior officials to encrypted assets. It was reported that the Senate was awaiting an ethical programme promoted jointly by bipartisan senators, but that the White House had not yet approved the programme before the parliamentarians left Washington.

Incentives for the stabilization of currency provisions have also led to differences between banking and encryption companies. The banking community is of the view that traditional bank deposits may be diverted if stable currency balances are accompanied by similar incentives; encryption companies wish to retain some incentive arrangements related to account activities.

Projected market prices remain low

The Polymarket page shows that, as of August 14, traders had given 21 per cent of the probability that the CLARITY Act would become law in 2026, with a related contract volume of approximately $7 million. The contract required H.R. 3633 to complete the legislation by 1 January 2027, so that the “yes” position would be fulfilled.

However, this price reflects only the expectations of traders and does not represent an official judgement. Prior to the Senate ' s confirmation that the contract was adjourned and did not vote, the probability of a contract had dropped significantly from 82 per cent of the high point in February to 16 per cent at the beginning of August.

The White House meeting itself would not directly change the status of the bill. Even if the parties agree on an ethical provision or an incentive to stabilize the currency, the Senate will have to complete the negotiations and obtain a sufficient number of votes; if the Senate adopts the revised version, the Chamber of Deputies will have to accept the text or the two houses will continue to coordinate the differences before they can be sent to Trump for signature.

CTC will meet the following day

One day after the White House meeting, the CFTC will hold its first meeting of the Innovation Advisory Board in Washington on 20 August. According to the published agenda, the Committee will discuss the topics of encrypted assets, artificial intelligence and forecast market regulation, which will be available online for approximately three hours.

At present, the CTC does not state that the Conference will vote on specific rules, nor does it suggest that it will bring about immediate policy change. But if the CARITY Bill is finally passed, the powers of the CTC over the digital spot market will be significantly expanded. Under current legislation, the Agency is responsible for the regulation of commodity derivatives, including futures and options in Bitcoin.