Bitcoin is lagging back from the top and the market is divided as to whether it is attractive below $100,000. According to foreign sources, the founder of Strategy, Michael Sylar, has recently again defended the long-term prospects for Bitcoin, arguing that the current decline is not prominent in the historical cycle, but the challengers point out that this judgement is directly related to the large silos of his company.
Sylar focused on long-term cycles.
Sylar did not focus the discussion on short-term prices, but rather on a four- or even ten-year observation cycle. He stated that since August 2020, when the purchase of bitcoin began, the market had experienced a number of sharp retreats, and that the current fall was not extreme compared to about 75 per cent between 2021 and 2022.
According to him, the value of a bitcoin should not be judged solely in terms of dayline fluctuations, but rather in terms of trends over the longer-term average and longer-term scales.
Institutional involvement is its core argument
Sylar believes that the bottom conditions that support Bitcoin are different from those of two years ago. The article mentions that he sees changes in American policy attitudes, increased bank involvement and bitcoin ETF expansion as the main basis.
- He claims that the White House, the Fed Chairman, the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the United States of America have expressed their support for it.
- He claims that about 75 percent of the big banks have supported bitcoin in some way.
- About 100 bitcoin, ETF, total holdings over $100 billion.
He also reiterated the web status of Bitcoin, stating that, although its code had been reproduced in large numbers, Bitcoin itself maintained a long-term security record, distinguishing it from other encrypted assets.
With Amazon and apple-like bitcoin.
According to the article, Sylar did not compare Bitcoin with gold or other tokens, but compared it to Amazon and apples at an early stage. His core statement was that subversive networks were often not accepted by traditional capital at an early stage and that market pricing would not be re-pricing until the scale of use and capital allocation changed.
He also referred to Warren Buffett ' s subsequent massive investment in apples as an indication that traditional finance tended to accept new technologies slowly and that bitcoin might be at a similar moment in the future.
Several potential catalysts he mentioned.
Sylar does not directly judge the bottom of the market when it is possible to improve, but lists several factors that may contribute to the recovery of risk preferences.
- Geographic conflicts eased and market pressures eased
- The monetary environment has shifted from a tight to a more relaxed one.
- Current significant financial flows to AI area reallocated to other assets
According to them, in the event of a change in these conditions, some of the funds could be redirected to bitcoin.
The article also notes that this is not a neutral analysis. Strategy, with its large bitcoin silos, and Sylar's past public statements, had influenced market sentiment, and his statements were therefore inherently position-based.
In the opinion of the challengers, the direct analogy of Bitcoin with the historical path of Amazon, apples, there are selective sampling problems and it is difficult to prove that different assets would replicate the same results. However, the articles also mention the continued expansion of the institutional infrastructure and the continued weakening of the diaspora, indicators that can be continuously observed.