The White House of the United States is planning a meeting of the encryption industry on August 19th. It was reported that Coinbase, Ripple, a16z, Chainlink, Paradigm and the Forecast Market Platform Kalshi were expected to be represented. Prior to the meeting, the United States Senate was preparing to move the CLARITY bill forward, and the market was concerned about whether there would be real progress in the regulatory division of labour.

The list of participants points to regulatory issues

Semafor quoted informed reports that the conference will involve at least six encrypted and forecasted market companies. The report did not disclose that companies were specifically on the executive list, but Chief Executive Officer of Coinbase Brian Armstrong and Chief Executive Officer of Ripple Brad Garlinghouse had previously publicly supported the CLARITY bill.

According to the source, the Chairman of the CTC, Michael Selig, and the Chairman of the SEC, Paul Atkins, are also expected to participate. However, at the time of the release of the report, neither the White House nor the two regulators had published the official agenda, and the personal presence of Trump remained unconfirmed.

The Clarity Bill will be put to a Senate vote.

This meeting coincided with the very moment before the Senate moved forward with encryption legislation. According to the Senate calendar, the procedural motion for the CLARITY bill will mature on 15 September, when the Senate will vote on whether to proceed to formal consideration.

This step does not amount to the passage of the bill, but at least 60 senators are needed to move forward. As the Republicans alone are unable to reach this threshold, the support of Democratic parliamentarians remains crucial.

At the core of the bill is the division of responsibilities for digital assets between the two major United States regulators: eligible digital spot markets for commodities will be regulated by CFTC, while encrypted assets identified as securities will remain under the purview of the SEC. The bill will also establish federal requirements for exchanges, brokers, dealers, consultants and digital asset trustees.

Coinbase and Ripple have publicly supported the bill.

For Coinbase and Ripple, this White House meeting is not only a window of policy communication, but is also directly related to long-standing regulatory clarity promoted by both companies. Coinbase supported the bill, but at the same time expressed concern about the Stable Currency Incentive Scheme and the relevant provisions of DeFi.

Earlier this month, Armstrong indicated that, although the Senate was moving at a slower pace than expected, activities in the areas of currency stabilization, monetization of assets and sustainable contracts would continue to grow. In his view, a more uniform federal regulatory framework would facilitate investment and consumer protection.

Ripple also supports the bill. Prior to this, Ripple and Coinbase were involved in an industry coalition of more than 120 companies calling on the United States Congress to move the relevant legislation forward.

The market is expected to remain cautious during the year.

Despite new catalysts from the White House meeting and the Senate timetable, the market's judgement of the CLARITY Bill to become law in 2026 is expected to remain low.

  • Polymarket traders give a probability of about 19%.
  • The contract rose to 21% on August 14th.
  • In February this year, the probability level reached 82%.

Another Kalshi contract related to the progress of the process shows that the market is more favourable to the Senate voting by 1 October. The probability given by the contract as at 11 August was 88 per cent, with a turnover of approximately $12.23 million. This, however, reflects only the anticipated voting time and does not mean that the bill will eventually be approved.

The next day the CTC will discuss encryption and AI

Following the White House meeting, the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee will meet on 20 August. In accordance with the published agenda, the meeting will discuss the history of encrypted regulation, state-level licences, overlapping of federal and state competences, and the space for rule-making under the existing legal framework.

Another discussion on the same day will focus on AI ' s application in transactions, compliance, monitoring and risk management, and the last one will address issues such as forecasting markets, event contracts, market manipulation risks and customer protection. This means that discussions at the United States regulatory level on encryption and related market structures will continue after the White House meeting.