According to Deutsche Bank, the fifth “explosive” increase in gold, which began in 2024, has not been completed. The bank noted that central bank purchase money and the return of ETF funds are double-supporting and that the gold spot price has been running above $4300 per ounce, ranging from $4,700 to $5100 per ounce at the end of the year.

Central Bank money is still high.

In a recent report, Michael Hsueh, a German commodity strategist, described the central bank as the most important structural buyer of the current gold market. The report shows that in the first quarter of 2026, central bank purchases reached an all-time high of $38.880 billion in real dollars.

Deutsche Bank also mentioned that about half of central bank demand for money was not reported through the IMF channel. Data from Metals Focus show that the size of the unreported quarterly demand has risen significantly since the third quarter of 2022.

ETF funds are being restored

ETF financial flows are also improving. German data show that net inflows of gold EF 30 days have reached 1.5 million ounces, and the global EF hold has accumulated an increase of about 4 million ounces since the beginning of the year, with the funds being redirected.

Regionally, Asian markets are net buyers, with China, Japan and India contributing more; developed markets are dominated by net sales. According to Deutsche Bank, for the first time since 2020, there has been a net annual increase in Chinese gold ETF hold.

End-of-year target is $5,100.

The long-term pricing model of the Deutsche Bank is based on the expansion of the United States Government ' s debt as a core variable, combined with the United States dollar, real interest rates and equity risk premiums. The Bank expects that in 2026 the United States public debt will remain at a relatively high rate of growth in comparison to that of the year, which supports the price of gold.

At the same time, the report notes that the gold futures warehouse remains uncrowded and that the open contract was once reduced to a low level since 2009. According to the German Bank, this means that there is still room for further upswing in the price of gold if the subsequent inflow continues.