A number of macro and encryption policy events in the United States this week will be on the market. With the exception of Japan’s second-quarter GDP and US Treasury debt flow data, the Fed’s proceedings, the White House encryption conference, the CFTC Advisory Board meeting and the August PMI opening in the United States could affect risk asset pricing.
Japanese data release first
This week's first release was Japan's second-quarter GDP. If the data are stronger than expected, the market may reassess the interest-rate space of the Central Bank of Japan, Japanese yen, or be backstopped, and the global arbitrage may be under pressure.
On the same day, the United States Treasury Department will also publish data on financial flows. The market will be concerned about whether Japan will continue to reduce US Treasury debt in June. Japan is an important overseas holder of United States Treasury debt, and changes in its holdings usually affect global interest rates and exchange rate expectations.
Federal Reserve minutes and White House meetings
The focus of this week is on the minutes of the Fed meeting. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the market is currently pricing less than 40 per cent of the September hike. If the narrative is worded in favour of eagles, interest rates may be expected to adjust quickly, affecting the performance of Bitcoin and other risk assets.
On the same day, the White House will also hold a conference on encryption. It was reported that the heads of the Tromp, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as well as the executives of Coinbase, Ripple and Kalshi, were expected to attend. The market will be concerned about whether the conference releases new digital asset policy signals.
CFTC meetings and employment data
On 20 August, CFTC will convene the first meeting of the Advisory Committee on Innovation. Encryption transactions and forecasting markets are expected to become a priority issue. The meeting may reflect how the United States regulatory community views encrypted transactions, predicts markets and new financial products.
The number of United States start-up unemployment benefits, published the same day, will also be of interest, with the market expected to be around 20.20 million, down from the previous value of 20.09 million. If the data are clearly high, they may be considered to be weak in the labour market; if they continue to fall, they indicate that employment remains resilient.
Bitcoin's focus on interest rate expectations
Later this week, the United States will also publish the August PMI opening for manufacturing and services. This set will provide the market with an early signal of whether United States business activity is accelerating or slowing down. Forbitcoin, the expected changes in interest rates and the release of policy information from the White House conference remain the two main lines of attention this week.