International oil prices continued to rise on Monday, as a result of warming concerns about supply in the Middle East. Brent crude oil rose to US$ 89.40 per barrel, close to the US$ 90 threshold; WTI crude oil rose to US$ 82.83. The price of oil for both benchmark countries increased by more than 5 per cent last week.

Holmuz has significantly slowed down.

Changes in transport in the Straits of Hormuz are a direct trigger for the current round increase. According to Reuters, only 5 cargo ships passed through the waterway last Saturday, and no traffic was registered on Sunday, as compared with 31 at the previous weekend.

The slowdown occurred after the attack on the tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, while Iran indicated that it had not yet decided to resume negotiations with the United States. The market has therefore recalculated the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East.

Stock and demand expected to be suppressed

Despite supply concerns that have pushed up oil prices in recent months, the increase has not entirely opened. Data from the United States Energy Information Agency show that, as of the week of August 7, the United States commercial crude oil stock had increased by 17.4 million barrels to 424,400 million barrels, the largest single-week increase since January 2023.

The demand side also lacks stronger support. The growth in global oil demand in 2026 is expected to drop to 580,000 barrels per day, while the International Energy Agency expects demand to contract this year.

OPEC+ September

In addition to the inventory and demand factors, there are new easing signals at the supply end. 7 OPEC+ oil-producing countries plan to adjust their combined daily production by 188,000 barrels in September, which means that the market will be faced with new supplies.

Overall, the obstruction of transport in the Straits of Hormuz is supporting Brent and WTI to maintain high levels, but the increase in United States stocks, the expected weakening of demand and the OPEC+ increase arrangement are also limiting further increases in oil prices.