Bitcoin rose at the beginning of the week to $64,000, and the risk assets as a whole were stronger. However, whether or not the market would be able to move out of the summer zone would depend on derivative leverage, Washington's regulatory signals and the evolution of the situation in the Middle East.
Unsettled contract back to sensitive area.
Velo data show that bitcoin aggregate unsettled contracts have returned to their levels before the market collapsed on October 10. This means that, after months of deleveraging, traders have re-established larger derivative positions.
The upturn in holding usually increases price elasticity. Once the line continues, the upper space may be further opened; however, if prices reverse, the pressure on liquidation will increase simultaneously and market fluctuations may increase significantly.
The White House is back-to-back with the supervisory conference.
This Wednesday, the White House is expected to hold a meeting involving the encryption industry, forecast markets, artificial intelligence and senior managers of traditional financial institutions. It was reported that Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhod, Polymarket, Kalshi, as well as representatives of NASDAQ, the New York Stock Exchange, CME Group and the United States Deposit and Liquidation Corporation, may be present.
The President of the United States SEC, Paul Atkins, and the Acting President of the CFTC, Michael Selig, are also expected to participate. Meanwhile, Washington is still discussing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Bill. The CTC is scheduled to meet on Thursday to discuss the evolution of encryption regulation and the problems facing the construction of federal market structures.
The SEC was scheduled to consider a proposal for a code on encryption on Friday, but the meeting scheduled for the previous day was temporarily cancelled. In accordance with the original agenda, members might have voted on a partial exemption clause that might have made it unnecessary for an encoded start-up enterprise to fully apply the requirements for the issuance of traditional securities in financing.
The situation in the Middle East remains an external risk
The United States and Iran have reached the deadline for a ceasefire, but negotiations have not progressed. There has also been a marked decline in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler data, only 5 bulk cargo ships passed through the Strait last Saturday, compared to 0 on Sunday, compared with 31 on the previous weekend. Prior to the conflict, more than 130 ships were passing through the waterway daily.
The Strait of Hormuz covers about one fifth of the world ' s transportation of crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Once the situation escalates again, oil prices may be hit again and channelled to broader risk assets.
Institutional holding is still being adjusted
Strategy still has $653 million in priority stock buy-backs, as well as $1 billion in regular stock buy-backs for MSTRs, and no new bitcoin increase has been seen in the recent past.
On the other side, a further 79 bitcoins were purchased at a cost of about $5 million at an average purchase price of $63,231. The number of warehouses increased to 20,246 with a value of approximately $1.27 billion by medium calibre.
Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has risen by about 1.7 per cent, standing at $64,000; gold has broken by $4,400 per ounce, and silver has remained around $66. The market is not short of risk preferences, but what really determines direction is whether regulatory progress, leverage change and geo-situation can bring about new catalysts.