After the expected cooling of the United States-Iran agreement, the market reassessed the risk of supply of crude oil in the Middle East. The prospect of transportation in the Straits of Hormuz is once again provoking the oil market to push Brent crude oil up to $91 per barrel and WTI to stand on $85.

Oil prices have risen to a high level in recent months.

As of August 18, on the Asian Early Disk, Brent Oil Futures was $91.14 per barrel, an increase of 0.3 per cent per day; and WTI Oil, United States, 85.04, an increase of 42 cents. In the disk, the WTI reached 85.37 dollars, the highest since 31 July, and Brent rose to a high position since 30 July.

The market is now concerned about Brent's ability to hold the 90-dollar threshold. If maintained above this level, this indicates that the geo-risk premium is still in place; if it is re-diggled at $90, a partial premium may fall back.

Holmuz risk pushes up the supply premium.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), crude oil production in the Gulf region remained 8.3 million barrels/day below pre-war levels in July, and regional exports declined as a result of a new round of disturbances affecting passage through the Strait of Hormuz. IEA currently anticipates a supply gap of 1.8 million barrels per day for the third quarter of the global crude oil market.

The United States Energy Information Agency (EIA) also increased its oil price projections for 2026, with a projected Brent average of $86.81 per barrel and a WTI average of $80.88 because of the likely longer supply losses in the Middle East.

The increase in United States stocks is held back.

The main factor in curbing the increase was the United States stock and demand outlook. The United States commercial crude oil stock increased by 17.4 million barrels to 424,400 million barrels as of the week of August 7, the largest single-week increase since January 2023. The next EIA inventory report will be published on 19 August.

Demand judgements remain divided. IEA expects that global oil demand will decrease by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, while OPEC still expects an increase of about 600,000 barrels per day. Current oil prices are still largely driven by supply risk, but geo-prime premiums may shrink if stocks continue to increase significantly or diplomatic progress resumes.