The global rate of long-term national debt return continues to rise, and market attention is shifting from inflation to debt supply and sovereign credit pressures. In the United States, 30-year sovereign debt yields have risen to 5.33 per cent, the highest level since 2007. Long-term borrowing costs in the United Kingdom, France and Japan are also rising simultaneously, putting pressure on both technology financing and the encryption market.
America's long-debt return has risen to a high level.
Bond prices have changed in reverse with the rate of return, which means that investors are selling long-term national debt. With the exception of the United States, 30 years of annual government debt return in the United Kingdom is approaching 6 per cent, the cost of French borrowing has risen to a high level since 2008, and Japan's long-term rate of return continues to be up to date.
ETF TLT, which tracks long-standing United States Treasury debt, dropped to $8.135 on Monday, a record low. This reflects a marked weakening of market demand for long-term bonds.
Debt supply overlaps with AI Debt flow
The report mentions that the United States Government's debt is approaching $40 trillion and that new debt and refinancing pressures are raising long-term interest rates. At the same time, large technology companies are increasing their debt for AI infrastructure and are increasing the cost of financing their enterprises.
Since 2026, super-large cloud computing companies have issued $15.9 billion in bonds, an increase of 47 per cent over the same period. Goldman Sachs expects that the size of such companies' debt will reach $40 billion a year. The cost of refinancing the related debt increases further with each rise in the rate of return.
Bitcoin avoids the story and is tested again.
Higher rates of return usually increase risk-free returns, thus attracting part of the funds away from highly volatile assets. For the encrypted market, this means that bitcoin and other risk assets may face greater financial diversion pressures.
In theory, neither gold nor bitcoin generate interest and are less attractive in a high-yield environment. But gold is still rising by about 10 per cent this month, indicating that some investors are not just chasing interest rates, but are also risking undermining sovereign financial credibility.
Oil prices remain one of the market concerns. WTI crude oil is currently above $84 per barrel, an increase of about 25 per cent over the July low point. However, inflation for 5 years and 10 years is expected to stabilize roughly by 2.25 per cent and 2.28 per cent in the week, suggesting that the current market is more concerned not with inflation per se, but with debt supply and financing pressures.