According to a study published by Belet in August 2026, bitcoin has fallen by more than 50 per cent since its high point in October 2025 and has not changed its long-term investment logic. According to the report, the decline was more a one-time silo and liquidity exercise than a fundamental change in asset attributes.
Leverage Zoom Back
According to Bloomberg and Coin Metrics, quoted by Belet, bitcoin rose from $15,765 at the end of 2022 to $124,606 in October 2025. Close to peak, futures contracts were once over $90 billion in size.
About 80 per cent of the openings came from the permanent contract market outside CME. Part of the platform provides 50 to 125 times leverage, making it possible for prices to trigger automatic silos at a small fall and further magnify fluctuations.
Beled noted that the first round of large-scale deleveraging occurred after the announcement of China-related tariff measures by the United States on October 10, 2025. Bitcoin fell by 6 per cent that day, and the unsettled contract fell by $20 billion a day. Then, in February and June 2026, there was a continuous silo, which eventually pushed prices below $60,000.
ETF Weaknesses in funds, AI diversions
The report showed that the United States spot bitcoin ETP, which had been on the market since January 2024 to October 2025, had attracted a cumulative inflow of about $60 billion. By July 2026, however, such products had been released totalling about $5 billion.
According to Belet, AI thematic funds attracted more than $46 billion over the same period and could compete for funds with bitcoin products. This means that institutional and retail attention has shifted to AI stocks over time, thus slowing down the demand for bitcoin.
However, the United States Bitcoin Fund has recently been rehabilitated. According to Farside, net inflows of $297.5 million and $189.3 million were recorded on 17 and 18 August, respectively, totalling $486.8 million in two days, reversing the net outflow of about $385.2 million a week earlier.
Businesses sell money to increase market supply
Belet also listed the sale of mining companies, large households and digital asset banks as one of the sources of pressure for this round. The regulatory documents show that MARA sold 15,133 bitcoins in March, with an estimated $1.1 billion.
Strategy has since introduced the Bitcoin Disbursement Scheme, which allows for the sale of Bitcoin when needed to replenish reserves, pay dividends and interest and buy back securities. According to the United States SEC document of 10 August, Strategy sold 1,690 bitcoins between 3 and 9 August and received $108.6 million for the repurchase of STRC priority units.
Maintain small-scale configuration judgement
Bered's 10-year historical return shows that a 1% or 2% bitcoin configuration is added to the traditional US 60/40 configuration, with higher risk-adjusted returns. 1% configured Sharp ratio 0.90, 2% configured 0.96, base group 0.81.
In terms of maximum withdrawals, the traditional combination retreats were 20.3 per cent, 1 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, after bitcoin, with relatively limited variations. Belet thus maintained its small-scale allocation view and continued to focus its follow-up observations on ETP financial flows, future stock holding changes and corporate disclosure.