According to external sources, the management agency VanEck believes that bitcoin may be coming to an end. The main reason for this is that there have been signs of “surrender” in multiple markets and that long-term holders have experienced a marked slowdown over the past month, but prices have not continued to decline significantly.

VanEck mentioned eight surrenders.

The article cites VanEck's judgement that 8 of the 12 signals used to observe the market had been triggered. At the same time, long-term holders have accumulated a decrease of about 356,000 BTCs over the past month.

Typically, such changes mean that more sturdy investors begin to cash or stop losses and market pressure is being released. VanEck argued that, after such sales had taken place, it was often suggested that the lower space was being narrowed if prices were maintained.

  • Triggered signal: 8 of 12
  • Long-term holder reduction: approximately 356,000 BTCs
  • Price performance for almost one month: overall level

Turn back the background towards macros and risk avoidance. Okay.

The article mentions that bitcoin experienced a marked fall earlier this year after rising to a new level of $12.608 million in October 2025. This is attributed to the rise in macro-uncertainty and geo-stretching of the need to avoid risk.

In this environment, some of the funds are diverted to relatively robust assets, such as gold, under pressure from volatile varieties. According to this article, the current round of adjustments does not come entirely from within the encrypted market, but is related to a broader change in risk preferences.

Four-year cycle and interest-rate reduction expected remain observation points

The article also mentioned that bitcoin had been high in the early stages of 2017, 2021 and 2025 and that the market was still discussing the continuation of its four-year cycle. In this line of thinking, the current stage is more like a post-higher revision than a trend that has been completely broken.

Another variable of concern is inflation in the United States. According to the article, the United States CPI has recently returned to a downward trend in interest rates that could be expected to increase if inflation is further near the Federal Reserve 2 per cent target. Bitcoin may also benefit if the interest rate environment is eased and the overall pressure on risk assets is eased.