A recent mid-month observation by VanEck of Bitcoin indicates that the market has entered a period of significant pressure, but this does not mean that prices have been recognized at the bottom. Of the 12 “surrender” indicators tracked by the Agency, 8 remain in a trigger state, with all of them entering extreme zones in the past three months.
Historic resonance does not support a quick rebound
VanEck stated that when 8 to 12 indicators were triggered at the same time, the 90-day follow-up average of Bitcoin was about 12.8 per cent, below the average of 15.2 per cent for its historical comparable period. The average increase after 180 days is 32%, which is also below the average of 36.3% for the whole sample.
This means that this group of signals is better suited to determine the cyclical position of Bitcoin than to find the exact bottom. VanEck also mentioned that the return was higher than the historical baseline only after a one-year extension, but that the related samples were more overlapping and the number of independent events was limited.
It's a shallow fall.
By the VanEck caliber, bitcoin has fallen by about 49 per cent since its high point in October 2025, meeting its separate drop threshold and is therefore included in a trigger signal. However, if the historical stratification method is fully consistent with other indicators, it should be seven instead of eight.
According to VanEck, the current round may have fallen less than in previous bear cities. In previous major downturn cycles, peaks reached 94 per cent, 85 per cent, 84 per cent and 78 per cent, respectively. The agency has judged that the U.S. cash has now formed a regulated source of demand, with more institutional holders, and even fewer large non-regulating agencies, like Celsius and FTX in 2022, that trigger chain sales.
However, in terms of time, this round is closer to history. According to VanEck Statistics, since 2011, four rounds of a full-scale bear market have been found to last on average approximately 11 months from the high to the low; if the 2011 smaller cycle is excluded, the average duration is approximately 12.7 months. At this pace, in August of this year, Bitcoin entered the tenth month of the decade since October 2025, so the institution placed the next possible cumulative window between September and November.
ETF return and miner pressure
During the reporting period, net inflows of real bitcoin products from the United States amounted to approximately $663 million, or 10.4 million BTCs, which partially reversed an outflow of about $2.4 billion a month earlier. According to VanEck, this suggests that the regulated product channels are still providing demand, but the off-site and secondary markets are not stable.
During the same period, the annualized rate of volatility of Bitcoin 30 days fell to 27.2 per cent, significantly below the long-term average of about 80 per cent, and the spot exchange fell by 27 per cent in 30 days, near the historical 10th fraction. In terms of prices, on 19 August in Asia, bitcoin traded in the vicinity of $6.43 million and recently operated between $6.23 and $6.65 million.
The pressure on miners is even more evident. VanEck claims that the daily income of the entire network decreased by 46 per cent over the same period, and that mining was more difficult than the high point of November in 2025, with 18.3 per cent, one of the largest decreases since China stopped mining in Bitcoin in 2021. This means that part of the mining apparatus is being passively reduced in production capacity.
The position of long-term holders is also declining. In the past 30 days, the number of bitcoin held for more than one year decreased by 356,534 to 1,184,000, or 59.1 per cent of the supply in circulation. VanEck noted that these changes did not necessarily represent sales, and that part of them could also be moved between private wallets for security reasons only, but that to confirm the flow to the exchange would still need to be seen in the context of the flow of data to the exchange by currency age.