The first half of the week, published by SimpleSwap, states that bitcoin experienced two near-scale withdrawals in February and June, but that the response to market funds was significantly different. According to the article, the inflow of a stable currency could at one time be considered a sign of panic, but this signal is failing in a repeated fall.
Significant discrepancies between February and June
The report indicates that, within 36 hours of 4 to 5 February, bitcoin fell by 17.5 per cent, with stable currency inflows being 600 per cent higher than the weekly average. However, in the approximately 70 hours between 1 and 4 June, bitcoin fell by 15.7 per cent, while similar inflows were 9 per cent below average.
The statistics given by SimpleSwap also show that the correlation between bitcoin and stable currency flows is -0.54 in the first quarter, while from April to June it is +0.18. According to the article, the market ' s risk-avoidance response to the decline was not simply a decrease, but a change of direction.
Peer data gives partial validation
In order to avoid deviations from the sample of a single platform, the report also introduces data from other aggregate platforms. According to SwapSpace, stable currency inflows during the February events were 61 per cent higher than the baseline, and by June they were below the baseline by 9.3 per cent, with a shift in weekly correlation from -0.33 to +0.04.
Swapzone also confirmed that the stable currency exchange in February was significantly higher than normal, with an increase of over 50 per cent. In June, however, individual stable currencies returned, but the total stable currency was still more than 10 per cent above the baseline. This means that the temperature increase in February was more consistently validated, while the cooling down in June was not entirely consistent.
The panic hasn't gone away, the financial behavior has changed.
According to the article, June was not an easier market phase. Cripto Fear & Greed Index is also in the middle of a dozen extreme panic areas at its lowest point in February. According to Alternative.me, about two thirds of the time in the first half of the year was in “extreme panic”.
At the same time, CoinGecko data show that the cash turnover of the main centralization exchange has declined from about $9.5 trillion in the second half of 2025 to about $4.65 trillion in the first half of 2026, while the total market value ended with an estimated $2.1 trillion. That is to say, the mood has not been clearly repaired, but the funding has slowed down on the downside of immediate risk avoidance.
More data points to the hold hold.
The report also mentions a reduction of about one third in the first half of the Platform ' s annual exchange volume compared with the second half of 2025, but a smaller decrease in the number of transactions suggests a possible change in the user structure that remains in the market. The supply of stable currency remained around $310 billion.
Another source of concern is the fact that the Visa-based Allium panel shows a stable currency transfer of $1.79 trillion in June, a record high. According to Simpson, this reflects a shift in demand from “where to put” to “what to replace”.
The report also states that cross-chain transactions account for 91.8 per cent of the Platform ' s total exchange, with a relatively stable monthly performance. According to the article, market demand is still present, except that users prefer to barter between chains and different modes of asset storage rather than to concentrate on a stable currency each time it falls.
Additional information:The article is based on the SimpleSwap report and cross-reference data from platforms such as SwapSpace, Swapzone, which is located in the original language as a market behavioral observation and does not give price projections.