According to external sources, the movement of Galaxy Research after the bear markets of Bitcoin was retrospectively analysed, concluding that the current round of rebounds, which had pushed prices back between $73,000 and $775 million, had not yet given the most reliable long-term reverse confirmation.

The 50-day average is more miscalculated.

According to the article, recent optimism has come mainly from the return of Bitcoin to the 50-day average. This position, which had previously been around $64,000, was seen by a number of traders as a short-wire and strong signal. However, Galaxy considered that such short-term indicators were of a high level of noise and were not commonly miscalculated when used alone.

Galaxy measured the performance of Bitcoin after the fall cycles since 2011. The data show that 43 of the 106 cases of re-posting the 50-day average proved to be false breakthroughs. Even if the price remains at the top of the average line for a few weeks, it is likely to re-elasticize or even create a new low cycle.

Key position is 50-week average.

According to Galaxy, the indicator of more reference value is the 50-week average. The current position is approximately $82,470. According to its retroactive results, in 13 cases in the history of Bitcoin in Bear City, the end of the cycle passed 11 times after the weekline had been recollected above the 50-week average.

In the last 15 years, this signal has only twice been significantly disabled, all of which occurred between 2021 and 2022. Bitcoin briefly returned to the top of the average line, then went down and eventually fell to $15,758.

  • Current 50-week mean position approximately $82,470
  • Bitcoin is about $73,000 to $77,500.
  • From June 30th, the low-point rebound was about 32.4%.

We're still short on final confirmation.

According to the article, it is not uncommon to wait for stronger confirmation. Historically, in a longer cycle, bitcoin usually needs to be at the bottom 130 to 284 days before the first weekly line is on the 50-week average. By that time, prices had tended to rise at a lower rate of 63 to 80 per cent, reaching 237 per cent in 2011.

By this logic, investors who wait for the signal will often miss the increase in the previous period, in return for a higher degree of confidence in the reverse trend. Galaxy therefore believes that it is too early to discuss whether “the time to buy is missed”.

By the time the article was published, bitcoin had rebounded by more than 30 per cent at a low point of $58,525 as at 30 June, leaving approximately 6.4 per cent space for critical testing positions near $82,000. The article argues that, until this level is actually on the line, the current increase is still in the critical range, which cannot be ruled out as only a gradual rebound in the long-term downstream.