Foreign media: According to Dario, founder of the Bridge Water Foundation, the plan announced this week by the United States Treasury Department to buy back its national debt is not an isolated move, but a sign of rising US debt pressure. Against the backdrop of high long-term rates of return on United States debt and Japan ' s reduction in United States debt exposure, he warned that the United States fiscal position was approaching a turning point.
Repurchase of obligations is considered a risk signal
This week, United States Treasury Secretary Besent indicated that the Treasury would “market” through a buy-back exercise, possibly over $4 billion. In LinkedIn, Dario stated that the ability of the Ministry of Finance to repurchase bonds was in itself limited and that such operations, if they occurred more frequently, were indicative of debt system pressures.
In his view, the current financial situation of the United States Government would continue to accumulate and might eventually develop to a level where it was difficult to absorb. Dario described this change as an approaching risk phase rather than short-term fluctuations.
Deficit and debt service burden continues to grow
According to Dario, current spending in the United States is about 40 per cent higher than income and the fiscal deficit is widening. The United States had a budget deficit of over $432.0 billion in July. Dalio is not optimistic, although Bésente has indicated to CNBC that the deficit within the Trump government may have peaked and that the team is looking at ways to cut hundreds of billions of dollars in spending.
He noted that many of the expenditures had been committed or considered necessary, and that there was little real room for compression. According to him, if the United States Government were treated as an enterprise, its debt servicing burden would be approximately $11 trillion, or 200 per cent of annual income. This means that future principal repayments and interest expenditures will continue to increase.
Gold and bitcoin configuration.
The article argues that to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3 per cent of GDP, the United States needs to move forward on three measures at the same time: cutting spending, raising tax revenues and lowering interest rates. Dario stressed that the three measures had to be pursued simultaneously to avoid a sharp shock from relying on a single item.
At the same time, he objected to the imposition of interest rates and, in particular, did not want the Fed to interfere with interest rates by an unnatural means. In his view, the current economy had not entered a recession and remained a better window for dealing with the debt problem; Governments often needed to further expand their spending once the economy went down.
Dario indicated that the specific timing of the debt crisis could still be affected by political changes, military conflicts and so on. If the current path remains unchanged, the United States may enter the debt crisis phase at the earliest in one year and at the latest in five years, with his personal estimate of about three years.
In terms of asset allocation, he suggested that the portfolio could allocate 10 to 15 per cent to gold and hold "part" bitcoin to address potential risks. As a result of the upward trend in long-term United States debt, the United States stock has been under pressure this week, and the drop in the 500 index week is expected to be more than 1 per cent, with the three-week increase likely to be interrupted.