On August 24, the ETA rose to around US$ 2463, with a cumulative increase of 29.3 per cent in nearly 7 days and a 21.4 per cent increase in bitcoin over the same period. The outsider quoted Tom Lee, a co-founder of Fundstrat, who argued that the long-awaited “Ethernance Wheel” in the market might have started, but at this stage it was more like a preliminary sign than a long-term transition that had been confirmed.
ETH/BTC margin rebound
ETH/BTC is more reflective of the relative strength and weakness of the two assets than of the single dollar price. The ETH/BTC margin is estimated at approximately 0.0318 in terms of prices in the text, which is higher than about 0.02994 before 17 August. This means an increase in the number of ETH-convertible BTCs, which shows that funds have been more favourable in the near future.
However, the article also mentions that short run wins are not sufficient to prove that the wheel has stabilized. Because of the overall synchronized rebound of the encryption market, the comparative advantage of ETH will need to be sustained for a longer period of time in order to demonstrate a continuous change in the direction of the configuration.
ETF Financial flows become the focus of observation
The U.S. F. ETF attracted about $365 million in net inflows in July, up from $205 million in Bitcoin ETF in the same period. This was one of the strongest months since the launch of the product in 2024, ETF, which also allowed the market to focus on whether institutional funds were tilting towards ETH.
The article also notes that the single-month data still fall short of the following conclusions. More recent data also show that Bitcoin and ETA-related funds have attracted some $2.6 billion in total over the past week, suggesting that institutional demand is now more like a simultaneous flow of two main types of assets than a complete exit from Bitcoin.
Tom Lee, keep the target high.
Tom Lee believes that in the next one or two years, there will be an opportunity to break down $10,000 at the fare. According to the article, this judgement is based on several premises, including the monetization of assets, the stabilization of money, decentrization of finance and the continued expansion of AI-related financial activities and increased reliance on Taifeng as a clearing network.
However, it was also stressed that this target remains predictable. Even an increase in the use of the chain does not mean that ETH prices will rise at the same level. ETA also faces competition from Solana, agency-oriented and agency-specific networks, as well as from Taicha-compatible Layer 2, and transactions do not always flow back to the main network and translate into a proportional demand for tokens.
BitMine hold is considered a validated sample
It is mentioned that Bitmine currently holds approximately 5.82 million ETHs, or about 4.8 per cent of the supply in the form of Taifab, with a target of 5 per cent of the total supply. Of these, approximately 50,67,000 ETH have been pledged, representing about 87 per cent of its reserves.
According to estimates given by the company, this portion of the asset corresponds to approximately $250 million of annual pledge income under the pledge rate of 2.61 per cent. However, this remains dependent on changes in ETH prices, certification nodes performance and pledge rate of return. According to the article, if similar companies continued to increase their ETH, it might provide additional support for the statement that “funds are diverted to the Taifing”.
Next, the market will continue to focus on whether the ETH/BTC margin can be maintained above 0.030, and whether the Ether Workshop can hold an area around $2,400. If the ETF continues to flow, and its relative strength and weakness continue to improve, the market's judgement of the ETH upgrade will be more convincing.