Bitcoin has rebounded from the vicinity of $6.34 million over the past week and has recently returned to around $778 million. The market’s next focus has shifted from simple price repairs to this week’s Jackson Hole conference, particularly the Fed’s Chairman Kevin Walsh’s speech on Friday.

$80,000 is a short-line focus.

Several interviewees saw the proximity of $80,000 as an important resistance at this stage. CoinShares research director James Butterfill argued that the round was more like a macro deal than a simple encrypted narrative.

He noted that recent weak inflation and weak non-farm data weakened market expectations for further tightening of policies. The fall in the rate of return on short-end United States debt also suggests that bond investors ' bets on continued interest rates are declining. Against this background, Bitcoin is in an improved environment than in the previous period.

HashKey Senior Researcher Tim Sun also stated that what is more important now is that the power to drive prices has changed, not just the price itself. Sufficient deleveraging, weak United States dollars, low-level concentration and the return of ETF funds meant that the market was re-confirming the stage bottom zone.

Jackson Hall meetings affect interest rate expectations

The theme of this year's Jackson Hall conference was “Financial innovation: implications for payments and policies”. But the market is more interested in Friday's keynote speech. This will be the first Jackson Hall speech since Kevin Warsh assumed the presidency of the Fed and will be seen as an important observation window before the 16 September interest rate resolution.

According to CME FedWatch data, the market currently expects an interest rate increase of 38.4 per cent in September and a rate of 61.6 per cent to be maintained, with few interest-rate reductions expected. A month ago, the market's interest rate premium remained significantly higher, indicating that interest rates were expected to be adjusted.

Analysts believe that, if Warsh is cautious, it may continue to support risk asset sentiment; if stronger signals are released, it may put bitcoin under greater pressure near $80,000.

ETF buys and loses up the price.

This round is not driven by a single factor. The report mentions that the United States Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, had previously announced an increase in the scale of long-term national debt buy-backs, leading to a fall in the rate of return and a fall in the dollar. At the same time, Trump met with the head of the encryption industry and promoted discussions in Congress on Clarity Act, and the spot bitcoin ETF buys a new heating.

According to Stephen Wundke, the head of the Algoz strategy and collection, the exchange's Bitcoin reserve has been down for many years, and more than 80 per cent of the supply is held by long-term holders. The increase was further amplified by a large number of empty silos that had been forced to settle, following a spot-purchase breakthrough of $65,000 and $70,000.

The chief analyst of Bitget Wallet, Lacie Zhang, estimates that over the past two to three days, the total amount of space in the encrypted market has exceeded $4 billion, of which Bitcoin is about $2.75 billion. Wundke argues that the impact of spot ETFs is particularly evident as these products require the actual purchase and locking in of bitcoin, which directly reduces the marketable chips of the exchange.

The analyst still disagrees with the back city.

Despite the apparent recovery of market sentiment, analysts have yet to form a unanimous judgement on the subsequent trends. Butterfield expects that, in the short term, bitcoin will be more likely to maintain inter-zone fluctuations, with $80,000 at the top. While the pressure on whale sales has been reduced and there are signs of growth again, the scale is not yet sufficient to support a sustained breakthrough.

Sun agreed that additional funding and a clearer macro-catalyst were still needed to effectively stand at $80,000. In his judgement, the bottom of the bear market in the current cycle has largely formed, but this is not yet a direct definition of a new round of cattle market opening.

Wundke is more positive than that. He viewed $82,000 as the next major resistance and said that if the week was broken, prices could go up further by $95,000. The payment company, Oobit executive Bernard Fisher, remained cautious that the current increase was not a simple short-line lifting, but the market still needed to see whether Bitcoin could hold the existing compartments after heat cooling.