Foreign media: Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes that bitcoin is expected to rise to $126,000 by the end of 2026. His judgement is not based primarily on the narratives of the encryption industry, but rather on an increase in the United States debt burden, bond market pressure, and the possibility that major central banks could release liquidity again.

Debt stress is considered a major catalyst

Hayes, in an interview, stated that US debt and rising interest costs of about $40 trillion were increasing fiscal and debt market pressures. If high interest rates are maintained too long, the United States Treasury debt return may continue to rise and force more interventions at the policy level.

He mentioned that the recent increase in United States Treasury debt buy-back operations had been seen by the market as an official reluctance to see signs of a higher rate of return than would be the case. If more United States dollars go to the market, at-risk assets usually benefit, and bitcoin may also be one of the financial flows.

FIMA Tool Focus

Hayes also mentioned the Fed's FIMA buy-back tool. The tool allows overseas official agencies that hold United States Treasury bonds to pledge them in exchange for dollar liquidity.

According to him, countries such as Japan, which held large amounts of United States debt, might need to repatriate capital in the future if they faced domestic financial pressure. Direct large-scale sales of United States debt by these institutions could further boost the rate of return and increase global market volatility.

In his view, if the Fed were to expand the use of the FIMA tool, overseas official agencies would be able to obtain the United States dollar without a concentration of United States debt. This means that the global market may usher in a new source of United States dollar liquidity, which constitutes Lido.

It also refers to the $35,000 downline scenario.

Hayes also offers a more pessimistic short-term scenario. He stated that if Bitcoin suddenly fell to US$ 35 million as a result of passive sale or large-scale liquidation, this did not necessarily mean that a new round of long-term bear markets would begin.

According to the article, he saw this as a "Close Time" similar to March 2020. A sharp price setback could become a turning point in the run-up to a new round, if the market were to experience a major fall in policy easing and liquidity recovery.

Target price points to $126,000.

On a more optimistic path, Hayes argued that, if liquidity expansion occurs, Bitcoin itself is in the upper stages, and the increase could be further amplified. One reason for this is that there are still a number of investors that are under-configured for the BTC and that if prices break through critical areas, the recovery of funds may accelerate entry.

On the basis of this judgement, he set the more realistic target for 2026 at $126,000, which is higher than the previous historical high. In the longer term, if global liquidity continued to expand, he even thought that there was a possibility that bitcoin might run towards $500,000.

In his view, however, it was not simply the backlash of the encrypted market, but external shocks such as war or large-scale cyberattacks, that really required vigilance. Such incidents could have a more direct impact on global markets if they destroyed critical infrastructure.