Bitcoin broke $80,000 on August 25th, and Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, publicly stated that a new round of cattle has begun. According to external sources, he linked the round to the United States Treasury Department ' s extended limit on long-term United States debt buy-backs, arguing that the market was trading in a more liberal liquidity environment ahead of schedule.
Bitcoin broke $80,000.
In this round, bitcoin rose at one point to over $81,000, which was significantly higher than the $65,000 shortfall prior to the announcement by the United States Treasury Department of repurchase arrangements. This was also one of the strongest increases in recent months.
The report notes, however, that the sequencing of time does not provide direct proof of cause and effect. In addition to the information on buy-backs, the inflow of spot bitcoin ETF funds, the flat market for derivatives and the weakening of the United States dollar were also seen as driving factors in the price upturn.
- On August 19, United States spot bitcoin ETF net inflows were about $517 million.
- Bitcoin, after a breakthrough of $71,000, the liquidation further amplified the increase.
- The annual and 30-year rates of return on United States debt fell once and then partially rebounded.
Hayes sees buyback as a liquidity signal
In an article published on 25 August, Hayes stated that the United States Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, had decided to raise the ceiling on the scale of long-term national debt buy-backs, which could improve the relative attractiveness of risky assets and facilitate the flow of funds to bitcoin by lowering long-term rates of return.
The United States Treasury Department confirmed on 19 August that, from 9 September to 4 November 2026, the single cap on some long-term liquidity support buy-backs would increase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. Hayes believes that such operations would increase the liquidity of the United States dollar.
However, the definition of the tool by the Ministry of Finance is not the same. The official expression is to improve the liquidity of old vouchers and manage cash positions, rather than to implement monetary incentives. This means that the market ' s interpretation of buy-backs still has stronger expectations.
Official operations still fall short of market expectations.
It was reported that at the time of Hayes ' communication, the new higher repurchase cap had not been formally implemented and the relevant arrangements would not begin until September. The Ministry of Finance had also previously projected borrowing of $73.9 billion for the third quarter and assumed that the Ministry ' s general account cash balance at the end of September would reach $950 billion.
Hayes also mentioned that the general accounts of the Ministry of Finance could be another potential source of funding. At present, however, the United States Government has not announced full use of the balance, nor has it committed $1 trillion for bond buy-backs, so that this portion remains in the speculative phase.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve in New York is conducting a separate reserve management purchase operation of approximately $10 billion. It was stressed that the arrangement was intended to maintain a sufficient reserve for the banking system and was not part of the Ministry of Finance ' s repurchase plan.
Hayes says the position has risen to the highest risk.
Hayes states that its family office, Maelstrom, has adjusted the combination to the “highest risk” state, with the main openings being Bitcoin, Ethera, Ethena and Ether.fi. However, he did not disclose the specific size of the space, nor did he provide independently validated warehouse records.
At the same time, he cautioned that even if the situation continued, there could still be a significant reversal in the market. It was reported that the next clearer observation point would be September 9, when the higher-ceiling long-term United States debt buy-back would take effect. Thereafter, the market can further compare the extent of actual buy-backs, the rate of return on United States debt, the relationship between the Treasury ' s general account balance and the price performance of Bitcoin.