One of the core United States encrypted market legislations is entering the Senate process, but market traders are not expected to be optimistic about their annual landing. Kalshi transaction data show that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is less than 25 per cent likely to become law by the end of the year and less than 50 per cent likely to be implemented by April 2027.

A procedural vote will be held on 15 September.

The bill was approved by both parties in the House of Representatives in July 2025, and the next step will be the Senate ' s procedural vote on 15 September. At the heart of the bill is the establishment of a clearer regulatory framework for digital goods and the delineation of responsibilities between the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures and Exchange Commission (CFTC) in the area of encrypted assets.

At present, both institutions have issued guidelines on encrypted assets, but the regulatory boundaries have not been clearly defined by law. SEC is responsible for securities regulation, and the CTC primarily regulates derivatives markets, including futures and forecast markets. If passed, the bill would provide a clearer basis for the authority in which the digital assets would be regulated.

The White House continues to press Congress.

The White House has recently stepped up its push for Congress. Last week, United States President Trump publicly called on Congress to adopt the “A Fair Version” Clarity Bill, in an attempt to garner more political support for it.

The market had previously seen this push as a sign of benefit. CNBC reports that bitcoin has increased cumulatively by more than 20 per cent over the past week, partly driven by the market ' s expectations of moving the bill forward. However, in the light of Kalshi ' s pricing, traders still find it more difficult to complete legislation this year.

CFTC name or use existing authority

Last week, the Chairman of the SEC, Paul Atkins, and the Chairman of the CFTC, Michael Selig, took part in a meeting with the head of the encryption industry. Selig subsequently indicated at the first meeting of the CFTC Advisory Committee on Innovation that, if the Clarity Bill continues to be blocked in the Senate, the CFTC will consider direct use of existing statutory powers to begin establishing a regulatory regime for the encrypted asset market.

According to him, if the bill continues to stagnate because of the Democratic Party ' s obstruction, the CTC will not wait entirely for Congress legislation, but may take regulatory action first. This means that even if legislation cannot be completed in the short term, the United States encryption regulatory framework may continue to move forward through administrative and institutional levels.

  • Probability of becoming law by the end of the year: less than 25 per cent
  • Probability of implementation by April 2027: less than 50%
  • Procedural voting time in the Senate: 15 September