Data released by Eurostat on 25 August show that EU imports of goods to non-EU countries amounted to Euro701.8 billion and exports to Euro68 billion in the second quarter of 2026, creating a trade deficit of Euro21.8 billion. This was the first quarterly deficit since the second quarter of 2023; the previous round of deficits occurred mainly in the period between late 2021 and mid-2023 when energy costs surged.
Compared to the first quarter, exports grew by 5.4 per cent, or 34.9 billion euros; imports increased by 9.9 per cent, or 63.4 billion euros. The shift from surplus to deficit was not an absolute decline in exports, but a faster recovery in imports. Exports and imports have been falling steadily since the second quarter of 2025, and by the first quarter of 2026 this trend stopped, partly due to tariff tensions. Second-quarter data indicate that cross-border commodity flows have expanded again, but that the price and product structure of the expansion is unfavourable for trade balances.
The energy deficit expanded by nearly Euro30 billion, which eroded the chemical and food surpluses.
The increase in the energy product deficit from €71.3 billion in the first quarter to €10.1 billion and the deterioration of €29.8 billion in the single season are the main reasons for the overall negative balance. The deficit in raw materials increased from 7.9 billion to 9.4 billion euros and in other manufactured goods from 8.3 billion to 9.1 billion euros. Machinery and vehicles remained in surplus, but fell from 24.9 billion to 23.2 billion euros; and other commodity surpluses fell from 11.6 billion to 9.1 billion euros.
The relatively positive portion came from chemicals and related products, with a surplus increasing from 47.1 billion to 54 billion euros; and from 10.7 billion to 11.5 billion euros for food, beverages and tobacco. Together, these improvements are not sufficient to offset the energy gap. The industrial advantage of the EU is still reflected in chemical, mechanical and high-value-added manufacturing, but changes in energy import prices and quantities can significantly change the overall balance over a quarter.
The energy deficit may increase as a result of higher prices, increased imports or a combination of both. The Eurostat press release did not completely dislodge the price and volume effects on the same page as the nominal amount of the display. Thus, real energy consumption could not be judged by the same magnitude as the increase in real energy consumption on a year-on-year basis as Euro10.1 billion alone. If international energy prices increase, even if imports are stable, the nominal gap will widen.
Similarly, the 9.9 per cent increase in imports does not necessarily represent strong domestic demand. Enterprise stock-building, energy prices, supply chain advance procurement and euro exchange rates may push up imports. Domestic demand needs to be judged by combining data on actual imports, stocks, industrial production and consumption. The balance of trade in goods does not include income from trade and investment in services and cannot be directly equated with the current account of the EU as a whole.
The first run-off is a risk signal, but single-season data are not sufficient to define new trends
The trade deficit reduces the direct contribution of net exports to GDP, but the economic implications depend on the use of imports. If import growth comes from production equipment and intermediates, it may portend subsequent investment and output; if it is driven mainly by energy price shocks, it is more likely to reduce corporate profits and household purchasing power. The classification of products in the second quarter is closer to the second pressure, but the next batch of quantitative and price data is still required.
Export growth of 5.4 per cent indicates that EU enterprises do not lose out on the whole of external demand. There was a slight decrease in the surplus of mechanical vehicles and an expansion of the chemical surplus, reflecting a fragmentation of industry performance. Exports may continue to provide a buffer if the demand of major trading partners remains stable; orders and profitability will be affected if the tariff or exchange rate environment changes again. The total balance is not a substitute for competitiveness analysis at the industry level.
Compared to the energy crisis of 2021 to 2023, the deficit is currently only quarterly. The EU energy structure, stocks and supply channels have also changed, so the previous round cannot simply be replicated. It is a matter of concern that the energy gap has again exceeded 100 billion euros, indicating that sensitivity to external price and supply shocks remains. Data for successive quarters will determine whether this is a one-off or a new set of structural pressures.
The statistical calibration also needs to be clear: the data discuss trade in goods between the 27 EU countries and non-EU countries, which is not included in the balance for internal trade among member countries; and the products are classified by SITC. Bilateral changes in external partners, such as the United Kingdom, the United States or China, will enter the data, but the press release does not attribute the overall change to a single country. The reporting should not be based on an overall assumption that a partner bears the full responsibility.
The best judgement in the second quarter was that EU foreign trade activity had increased again after a previous decline, with imports increasing almost twice as fast as exports, and that the energy deficit had widened to a deficit of 21.8 billion euros. Chemical and food surpluses continue to show industry support and exports themselves are growing. Next, energy prices, real imports and exports of mechanical vehicles should be observed to confirm whether net export pressures will continue into three quarters, rather than declaring the long-term trade pattern reversed by a single deficit.
Source: Eurostat, EU reports of goods outspace exports in Q2 2026, 25 August 2026, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-202608225-1