According to external sources, Bernstein maintained a long-term appreciation of the bitcoin in his latest view, which was expected to rise to $150,000 by mid-2027. According to the Agency, the continued expansion of United States debt and the rising burden of interest are increasing market demand for scarce assets.

Baseline scenario for US$ 150,000

The baseline scenario given by Bernstein was that bitcoin returned to about $125,000 at the end of 2026 and then rose to $150,000 in the first half of 2027. In the longer term, the agency expects that the high point in the current cycle may be close to $300,000 in 2029.

Before this judgement was issued, Bitcoin had just experienced a clear rebound. The report mentions that the BTC rose by about 28 per cent in 10 days, before falling about half as high as in October 2025. As the price was back on top of $77,000, Strategy's large bitcoin holdout returned to the floating position.

Debt expansion and ETF support

Bernstein believes that the core context lies in rising financial pressures. The sovereign debt of the United States was approaching $40 trillion, and debt-servicing costs continued to rise in an environment of high interest rates. The Agency judges that the Government is more likely in the future to tolerate a weak currency purchasing power than a more radical fiscal contraction.

Under this logic, the supply ceiling is fixed at 21 million bitcoin, which is considered to be a scarce asset that may benefit. At the same time, institutional access is expanding. Bernstein claims that about 59 per cent of the Bitcoin supply has not moved over the past year, and that spot ETF and the treasury configuration are expanding the investor base.

Half a million dollars in optimism.

In addition to the baseline scenario, Bernstein gives a more radical judgement. If institutional funds accelerate the inclusion of bitcoin in “currency devaluation transactions”, the BTC could rise to $200,000 by mid-2027 and close to $0.5 million by 2029.

The longer-term projections remain unchanged. Bernstein still expects that bitcoin will be close to $1 million by the end of 2033. One reason for this is that spot ETFs provide traditional investors with more direct configuration tools without having to process the hosting of encrypted assets.

Strategy's target price is down.

While continuing to look at Dobitcoin, Bernstein reduced the target price for Strategy from $450 to $350. Reports indicate that this adjustment mainly reflects the expected changes in the Bitcoin cycle and a faster dilution of the equity rhythm.

To date, Strategy has 840,447 BTCs, representing approximately 4 per cent of the total supply of bitcoin. Recently, the company ' s treasury was operating with relative caution and was financed through the sale of shares, while continuing to suspend purchases.

Additional information:Bernstein estimates that Strategy currently covers approximately 3.9 years of interest and preferential dividends obligations and considers that it can still adjust its capital structure through the sale of some bitcoin, replenishment of reserves or repurchase of securities.