According to external media reports, Bernstein raised the expectations of the current round of coins in the client report issued on 26 August. According to its baseline scenario, Bitcoin could return to $125,000 by the end of 2026, up to $150,000 by mid-2027, up to a high point in the next cycle or close to $300,000 in 2029.

This is an institutional view, not a price path. According to Bernstein, Bitcoin is still largely following the four-year cycle of history, but this time the decline may have been somewhat limited by the ETF channel and the purchase of the business's bank.

ETF is considered as supporting

Bernstein's report mentions that the United States cash has provided a more direct configuration entry for institutional funds than the ETF. According to the Agency, the continued use of ETF gold, coupled with the incorporation of bitcoin into the treasury by listed companies, is changing the market holding structure.

According to the data cited in the report, approximately 59 per cent of the supply of bitcoin has not been transferred in the past 12 months. Bernstein views this phenomenon as a sign of a high percentage of long-term holders, indicating that a significant proportion of the hold-up has not left the scene during large fluctuations.

Recent financial flows are also seen as evidence of the return of institutions. It is mentioned that United States spot bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows of more than $1.1 billion for two consecutive days on 19 and 20 August. During the same period, the price of bitcoin continued to rise from a low of $60,000.

The devaluation scenario gives higher targets

Besides the baseline scenario, Bernstein offers a more optimistic path. According to the Agency, if government debt pressure continues to push up the rate of return and market concerns about the purchasing power of French currency rise, further financial flows to restricted assets, including bitcoin and gold, are likely.

In this scenario, Bernstein expects that bitcoin may rise to $200,000 by mid-2027 and reach $500,000 by 2029. It also maintains a long-term projection of $1 million at the end of 2033.

The report noted that the size of the United States sovereign debt had risen to $40 trillion, and that rising interest expenditure could increase fiscal pressure. On this basis, Bernstein judges that scarce assets may continue to benefit if the policy level is more inclined to deal with debt through currency devaluation rather than more stringent fiscal contraction.

As also mentioned by Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, the gold ETF of iShares Bitcoin Trust and State Street in the recent US ETF trading roll, is back in the top 10, partially replacing more active semiconductor products in the summer. This has been interpreted by the market as a sign of a warming of the “currency devaluation deal”.

Strategy, lower target price.

While looking at Dobitcoin, Bernstein downgraded the target price for Strategy. The agency maintained the “run-win-the-drive” rating, but reduced the MSTR target price from $450 to $350 on the grounds that the Bitcoin cycle model was adjusted and the company's equity was diluted at a faster rate than previously anticipated.

According to the report, Strategy is still the most publicly disclosed listed company with Bitcoin, holding 840,447 BTCs, or about 4 per cent of the maximum supply of Bitcoin. However, the company has not continued to buy bitcoin in the recent past, although it has raised approximately $2 billion through regular stock sales.

The disclosure documents show that Strategy recently increased its United States dollar reserve and repurchased some of the STRC priority shares. Following the completion of the transaction, the company ' s United States dollar reserve was approximately $5.1 billion, with the bitcoin hold-up maintained, and the combined holding cost was approximately $75,385 per unit.

Short-line fall with derivative cooling

As of 26 August, Bitcoin had reported an estimated US$ 78,458, a decline of about 1 per cent for 24 hours, but had risen by nearly 14 per cent over the past seven days. This drop followed the release of July inflation data in the United States. The data show that the United States personal consumer expenditure price index rose by 3.7 per cent over the same period, slightly above market expectations.

After the release of macro-data, United States stock futures were weak and the return on United States debt went up. The CoinGlass data show a decline of 2.7 per cent to $54.8 billion in the 24-hour period for futures contracts in bitcoin, and a simultaneous fall in the size of the silos of CME and Binance, indicating that some derivative traders are lowering their position.

However, the forecast still retains optimistic expectations. Polymarket ' s previous contract showed that the probability price of the trader ' s bitcoin had risen to $85,000 by 2026 was about 68 per cent.