Bitcoin is now hovering around $78,000, after a quick fall of $81,000. According to external sources, a number of events will be concentrated over the next two days, including the impact of US inflation data on fermentation, the expiration of Deribit’s substantial options, the Federal Reserve Chairman’s first address at the Jackson Hall annual meeting, and the British Vader Press. The combination of these factors increases the divergences in the market ' s next direction.

Inflation rebounds to contain risk preferences

The July PCE price index for the United States published this week increased by 3.7 per cent from year to year, higher than market expectations by 3.6 per cent; the core PCE ratio was 3.3 per cent, consistent with expectations. At the same time, the second-quarter US GDP correction shows an annual growth of 1.5 per cent, with consumption spending stronger than at the beginning.

According to the article, this set of data weakens the market's bet on the Fed's move to easing as soon as possible. Inflation is higher than expected and consumption remains resilient, implying that there is no reason for an urgent reduction at the policy level. After the data were released, the bitcoin fell from $81,000 above to $78,000 below within hours.

The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the market currently expects the Fed to increase interest rates in September by 38.4 per cent, down from 82 per cent a month ago. The next interest rate resolution will be published on September 16.

$6.4 billion options due on Friday

Deribit will be meeting about $6.4 billion in bitcoin options due on Friday. The “maximum pain point” price of concern to traders is currently around $78,000, slightly below the spot price.

Such large-scale maturity usually magnifies volatility, as the party that sells the options needs to adjust its position to the price changes. If bitcoin continues to be above the maximum pain point before maturity, some of the sellers may need to continue to hedge the spot, thereby increasing upward pressure; if the price falls, the hedge may reverse.

The article mentions that when the power position is concentrated, market movements are sometimes more driven by position adjustments than by the information itself.

The British Vaders and Jackson Hall are talking about the same sunset.

The second-quarter performance of the United States shares will be announced after Wednesday, and Wall Street expects to receive approximately $92.3 billion. According to the article, British Weida remains an important window for observing the heat of AI infrastructure spending, and this year's increase in bitcoin is partly synchronized with the risk preferences of the AI Technology Unit.

Risk assets may benefit as a whole if financial reporting is stronger than expected and management provides more proactive guidance; and if performance is less than expected, or when the AI expenditure outlook is cautious, the Technological Unit and encrypted assets may be under pressure together.

Also on Friday, the Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynote address at the Jackson Hall annual conference. The market will judge his attitude to inflation and employment. If the language is biased, the United States dollar and the rate of return on United States debt may fall; if the risk of inflation is emphasized, the market's expectation of maintaining higher interest rates for longer periods may rise again.

ETF financial flows are still important support

The article also mentioned that US spot bitcoin and ETF combined net inflows of $2.6 billion last week, one of the best single-week performances since October 2025.

According to external sources, ETF funding flows are one of the most direct indicators of the needs of the observers. If ETFs continue to take money while the exchange can continue to decline, the price push for new purchases may be magnified. On the contrary, if funds are redirected to a continuous outflow, there may also be a rapid erosion of support in the near future.

The previous week, empty refills had pushed the market to a clear squeeze, with about $3 billion a day in drops being liquidated. According to the article, bitcoin short-line fluctuations are likely to remain high at a time when the flow of funds, macro-pregnations and derivatives are changing simultaneously.