Iceland will hold a referendum on Saturday to decide whether to resume the accession negotiations. Several polls show that there is a very small gap between support and opposition. This discussion, which was originally centred on the economy, sovereignty and fisheries, has recently seen a marked increase in the Arctic security situation.
Results of the referendum or resumption of the accession process
The question of this vote is straightforward: whether Iceland should resume the EU accession negotiations. If the majority votes in favour, Iceland will resume accession negotiations with the EU. If the negotiations are completed, the final agreement will be put to a referendum for acceptance.
Iceland applied to join the European Union after the global financial crisis in 2009, but suspended negotiations after the emergence of a suspected European coalition government in 2013. Today, the subject is back at the centre of politics.
The Trump and Greenland factors bring security pressure.
As the importance of Arctic shipping lanes, key minerals and regional security has risen, Trump has once again pushed the United States to take Greenland to the fore and has given rise to more discussion on security dependence in Iceland.
Eiríkur Bergmann, Professor of Political Science at the University of Bifrost, Iceland, stated that many of the security reasons put forward by the President of the United States to control Greenland applied to some extent to Iceland. The difference is that Iceland is a fully independent State.
He also noted that Iceland ' s security had long depended on NATO membership and that bilateral defence agreements had been signed with the United States since 1951. Today, some voters are beginning to reassess whether the security arrangements remain robust.
The economy and sovereignty remain the main axes of the vote.
Despite the rise in geopolitical factors, analysts believe that what really dominates the voting choices is still domestic issues, particularly the economy, sovereignty and fisheries.
One of the main reasons for supporting the resumption of negotiations is the fact that the Icelandic kroner, as a free-floating currency, has long faced large fluctuations. Proponents believe that a renewed discussion of relations with the European Union would help to provide more options for economic stability.
Opponents were of the view that Iceland currently maintained close economic ties with the European Union and that there was no need to further advance membership. The former Prime Minister, Katrín Jakobsdóttir, stated that Iceland had maintained close cooperation with the 27 countries of the European Union and that the standard of living of the population was at a high level, so she did not agree with the need to join the European Union.
Iceland is deeply connected to the European system.
Although not yet a member of the European Union, Iceland has joined the European Single Market through the European Economic Area and is also a member of the Schengen Area, which allows for passport-free travel with other participating countries.
For the European Union, if the Icelandic referendum were adopted, it could also be the last symbolic expansion of the British EU. The analysts are of the view that, if the winner were in favour of the camp, Iceland could reach a negotiated agreement with the European Union at a faster rate than expected from the outside world, as the next general elections in Iceland will be held no later than August 2028.