According to The New York Times, Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of Trump, stated earlier this year at a Republican Association of State Attorneys General that states should not continue to pursue predictive market platforms. This statement is of concern because Kalshi and Polymarket are facing legal pressure in many states of the United States, and federal regulators have intervened to gain control over such platforms.
Contact both platforms.
According to the report, Donald Trump Jr., at an event held in New Orleans in March, stated that some state governments were being influenced by lottery companies, which were trying to maintain their “monopoly” position. In his view, the forecast market should be regulated at the federal level rather than by the state lottery operations.
This statement is of concern to the outside world because of his links with two major forecast market operators. He is currently serving as an adviser to Kalshi, and Polymarket has been invested in its investment agency, 1789 Capital, and he is also on the Polymarket Advisory Council. Kalshi stated that his role in the company was primarily related to marketing and did not involve regulatory matters.
Multistate vs. Kalshi and Polymarket
The controversy surrounding the forecast market has shifted from political rhetoric to judicial action. Kris Mayes, Attorney-General of Arizona, filed 20 criminal charges against Kalshi in March, alleging that he operated an unauthorized lottery business and illegally provided election-related bets, including the 2026 election of the Governor of Arizona and the 2028 presidential election.
Measures have also been taken in Massachusetts. In January this year, the local court issued a preliminary injunction requiring Kalshi not to offer sporting events contracts to users in the state until compliance with state sports lottery laws and licence requirements.
The state of New York joined the suit in July, accusing Kalshi of an illegal, unlicensed lottery business in the forecast market. The state government also proposed that Kalshi allow for the participation of users between the ages of 18 and 20, while the minimum age for New York-based sports lottery participants is 21 years.
Kentucky, for its part, has targeted companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which consider their sports events contracts to be essentially unlicensed sports fairs.
CFTC advocates federal exclusive regulation.
The position of the CFTC is significantly different from that of the states. According to the Agency, the projected market exchange, which is registered at the federal level, should be subject to its exclusive supervision. To prevent states from regulating federally regulated incident contracts with lottery laws, CFTC has initiated legal action in Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Wisconsin, New York, Minnesota, Rhodes Island, New Mexico and Kentucky.
However, the cantons did not accept this statement. In July, a coalition of 44 state attorneys general sent a letter to CFTC stating that the agency did not have the authority to effectively take over sports lottery matters under the supervision of the forecast market.
This disagreement will have a direct impact on the way in which the United States projects the market industry. If federal regulation wins, the platform may apply the unified framework throughout the country; if the position of the Länder prevails, the operator will face different lottery laws, licence requirements and operational restrictions between the Länder.