Greyscale studies show that Bitcoin ' s recent price performance is closer to gold than high-growth technology units. With renewed attention to the debt and fiscal deficit in the United States, market discussions on “currency devaluation transactions” have been on the rise, and bitcoin's scarce asset attributes have re-entered investor horizons.

90-day change in relevance

A study published on August 27 reported that the 90-day correlation of bitcoin to gold had risen to more than 50 per cent, compared to near zero at the beginning of the year. During the same period, the correlation of Bitcoin to the NASDAQ 100 index fell from over 60 per cent to about 33 per cent.

This means that there has been an increase in the frequency of fluctuations between bitcoin and gold and a decrease in the association with large technology units in recent times. Zach Pandl, Director of Greyscale Research, argued that this might reflect the fact that the market is reassessing bitcoin more as a scarce monetary asset than as a subject of highly volatile technology transactions.

It is to be noted that relevance reflects a common pattern over time and does not mean that the two types of asset have the same characteristics of return, volatility or withdrawal. The greyscale does not directly equate the rise in United States debt with the subsequent movement of Bitcoin.

The nanofinger is coming back.

Over the past year, Bitcoin, along with the High Growth Technology Unit, has benefited from improved liquidity and expected interest rate falls, driven by AI. Today, this connection is weakening.

According to the greyscale, the 90-day correlation of Bitcoin to the n. 100 indicates that its short-term transaction logic no longer fully follows the large technology unit. The increased volatility in the bond market and the re-evaluation of long-term borrowing costs by investors in the United States were mentioned as a context for this change.

  • On 17 August, Bitcoin reported US$62,679
  • On August 21, the price rebounded to approximately US$ 79,500
  • 5 days cumulative increase of about 27%

Previous reports indicate that the increase was accompanied by repurchase adjustments by the United States Department of the Treasury, strong demand for spot ETFs, an empty silo and a weakening of the United States dollar, making it difficult to attribute the line to a single macro variable.

However, the subsequent partial increase in Bitcoin indicates that even if the correlation with gold increases, its short-term fluctuations remain significant.

Debt concerns facilitate trade in scarce assets

The so-called “value-depreciation transaction” usually refers to the flow of funds to assets that are considered to be able to withstand a decline in the purchasing power of the French currency. Gold has long assumed this role, while bitcoin, with a total ceiling of 21 million, is considered a digital alternative by some market participants.

According to the United States Department of the Treasury, the total United States federal Government debt has broken by $40 trillion on 18 August, to about $40.05 trillion, and further to about $40.10 trillion on 25 August. The Budget Office of the United States Congress projected a federal deficit of $1.9 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year.

Greyscale suggests that a persistent deficit and higher long-term rates of return may induce some investors to shift to scarce assets outside the government monetary system. This judgement, however, remains an investment logic and does not mean that debt growth automatically pushes up bitcoin.

Next, the market is more concerned about whether bitcoin ' s relevance to gold will remain high for a longer period of time. If this indicator continues to be strong in the new 90-day observation window, it is more likely that its transaction properties are changing.