International oil prices fell on Friday, and Brent crude oil weekly wires fell for the first time in three weeks. The market is re-evaluating the shipping prospects of the Strait of Hormuz: on the one hand, expectations of improved navigation as a result of diplomatic good offices, on the other hand, unrecovered physical transport, low stocks of finished oil and tight global stocks.
According to Reuters, Brent crude oil was reported early in the vicinity of US$ 89.45 per barrel, a cumulative decline this week of about 5.3 per cent; WTI newspaper of about US$ 83.31 per barrel, a decline of about 4.3 per cent per week. This means that both benchmark oil prices will end with two consecutive weeks of rise.
Holmuz is expected to lower oil prices.
Market fallback does not mean that geo-risks disappear, but rather that traders begin to account for potential improvements in shipping conditions. Iran is discussing conditions for the resumption of more normal shipping and is communicating with Oman on potential arrangements.
However, from actual transport data, the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below normal. According to Reuters, based on Kpler's preliminary data, only 7 visible cargo ships passed through the waterway on Thursday, down from 17 on the previous day and below the 10-day average of 15.
The Strait of Hormuz usually covers about one fifth of the world ' s oil supply, so that as long as access is restricted, oil prices will retain a geo-prime. The difference in the current market is that expected improvements are stifling futures prices, but the real logistics bottlenecks have not been lifted.
The United States oil stock continues to decline.
United States inventory data provide a bottom-up support for oil prices. Gasoline stock decreased by 2.5 million barrels, about 6 per cent below the average of five years, and distilled oil stock decreased by 2.2 million barrels, still about 14 per cent below the seasonal normal level.
At the same time, the start-up rate for United States refineries rose to 97.4 per cent. This indicates that even when crude oil futures are weak on that day, the fuel market itself remains tight and the end supply is not easy.
OPEC+ gains coexist with weak demand
On the supply side, OPEC+ plans to resume a voluntary reduction of 188,000 barrels per day in September, with the next meeting scheduled for 6 September. Increased production arrangements imply a potential marginal increase in future supply.
However, the International Energy Agency expects that the global oil market may still have a supply gap of 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter. The agency also stated that in July, an observational reduction of 69 million barrels showed that the spot market remained tight.
At the same time, the International Energy Agency expects that global oil demand will decrease by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, as high oil prices and supply disturbances are suffocating consumption. In the case of the oil market, this continues to be driven by two forces: Brent and WTI may continue to be under pressure if the passage of Holmuz is further improved; however, oil prices may be limited if the transport is blocked and the oil stock of the finished oil is kept low.