Bitcoin rebounded not only in terms of price but also in terms of its association with traditional assets. Grayscale studies show that the 90-day correlation of bitcoin to gold has risen to more than 50 per cent, while the correlation to the NASDAQ 100 index has dropped to about 33 per cent.

This means that, in the recent past, the market has preferred bitcoin as a scarce macro asset rather than a highly volatile alternative to trade in technology. However, whether this change will continue will depend on subsequent price data, as rolling relevance will change as the sample is updated.

Convergence changes at the rebound phase

The correlation switch occurs during a stronger increase in the year in bitcoin. From 17 August to 21 August, the BTC rose from approximately $62,679 to $79,500, an increase of approximately 27 per cent in four days.

Factors driving this round up include the adjustment of the United States Treasury debt buy-back operation, the weakening of the United States dollar, the flatness of the space and the recovery in institutional demand. With improved market liquidity, long-term yield pressures have eased and supported alternative assets.

ETF Continued Inflow

Flows of real bitcoin ETF funds also reinforced the rebound. Citing data, Coimpaper states that, as at 27 August, there was a net inflow of $242.3 million of real bitcoin ETF in the United States on that date and a net inflow of nine consecutive trading days.

  • Net daily inflow of $242.3 million
  • Net inflows recorded on 9 consecutive transactions
  • Cumulative net inflow for the current round is about $3.04 billion

Earlier, the weekly net inflow had reached about $1.9 billion, indicating that the institutional buyout was continuing.

America's debt exceeded $40 trillion.

At the macro level, fiscal pressures in the United States are also reinforcing the narrative of “scarce asset transactions”. The United States federal government's total debt broke $40 trillion on August 18, rising to about $40.10 trillion on August 25.

The Budget Office of the United States Congress projected a federal deficit of approximately $1.9 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year. The continued expansion of debt and deficits tends to raise market concerns about the purchasing power of the French currency, thereby driving some of the funds to be diverted to the supply of restricted assets.

Gold remains a more sophisticated defensive asset, while the volatility of bitcoin and the specific risks of encrypted markets remain high. It is even more interesting to see whether bitcoin will remain more synchronized with gold in a more obvious risk-averse environment.