Bitcoin dropped to $76,877 on Friday, returning most of the increase this week. The direct cause of the fall was the statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh in Jackson Hall, in which he stressed that the rate of the fall in inflation was still insufficient and that the Federal Reserve “had to do” in its fight against inflation.

The market then re-pricing the interest rate path. According to CME Fedwatch data, the deposit on September interest rate hikes by traders rose from 35.4 per cent the previous day to 55.7 per cent. As a result of this, Bitcoin has fallen rapidly since the overnight height of $81,455 and has been re-inhibited in areas of resistance that have repeatedly suppressed the increase, eventually collecting US$ 77,557, a single-day decline of 3.39 per cent.

The rate increase is expected to push up fluctuations.

Fluctuations after the speech are rapidly transmitted to leverage positions. The CoinGlass data show that, within 24 hours before and after the speech, the encrypted market accumulated approximately $481 million in liquidation, of which more than $360 million came from multiple silos.

This means that short-term funds are subject to suspensions after high levels of recovery. Although Bitcoin did not break the key structures of the preceding period, the resistance position re-emerged, which significantly cooled short-term market risk preferences.

The resistance zone is still open.

In terms of price performance, this turnback occurred near US$ 81,000 to US$ 82,500. The region has repeatedly suppressed up-to-up attempts this year, once again as a short-wire watershed.

The article mentions that if the decline continues to grow, the US$ 73,670 to US$ 75,157 will form the backbone of the market ' s first focus. The 50-week average and the breakthrough structures since June could be tested if the closings were to break this zone again.

However, the current fall is more like an upswing, rather than a reverse trend. Bitcoin has been in the upper range since June at a low point of US$ 68,858, except that short-line motion can slow down in high places.

The long-term bets are still up.

Despite a marked reversal on Friday, the projected market pricing has not clearly shifted to pessimism. Myriad's “bitcoin's next move” market shows that traders are now at around 77 per cent of the 84,000 dollar bet for the bitcoin and 23 per cent of the 55,000 dollar probability price.

This market, which has been in operation since the end of February, has been in the lead in both directions on several occasions, but has entered the month to see a clear expansion of the advantage on the one side. The fall of Friday has not changed this distribution, suggesting that some traders still regard the fall as short-term fluctuations rather than medium- and long-term reversals.

An important backdrop to this sentiment is the continued flow of real bitcoin ETF funds in the United States. According to the article, as of Wednesday, there were eight consecutive trading days of net inflow of such products, with cumulative ingestion of $2.8 billion, the longest inflow since April.

In addition, the United States Department of the Treasury announced that it would at least double the scale of long-term national debt buy-backs from September 9. According to the article, this arrangement underpinned the long-term debt market, which previously had weak demand, as well as the weakening of the long-term rate of return and the dollar, thus reinforcing the macro-trading logic of the Bitcoin increase from approximately $62,000 to $80,000 this month.

However, in the short term, the market will continue to be driven by inflation data and the Fed ' s statement. Warsh did not give a clear interest rate path this time, but stressed that it would not be easy to declare a mission complete until inflation was clearly on target. This means that prior to the next interest-rate resolution, Bitcoin could still react sharply to each inflation data release.