Bitcoin had risen from about $6.35 million over a week to over $80 million. QCP Capital stated on August 28 that the main support for this round increase was the off-the-shelf buyout and headback, rather than the continued leverage of traders.
ETF inflow occurs at the same time as the holding warehouse drops.
QCP estimates that real bitcoin ETF in the United States attracted about $2.8 billion in inflows over a period of eight consecutive trading days. At the same time, futures contracts denominated at BTC prices were reduced from about 64.46 million BTCs in mid-August to 588,000 BTCs.
This means that the futures market as a whole declines when the price of bitcoin goes up. According to QCP, this combination is closer to spot-based finance driving and vacating, rather than a large amount of additional leverage entering. It was also mentioned that the financial rate remained relatively moderate during the increase, suggesting that there was no apparent overheating in the market.
In structural terms, such increases are usually more stable than “quick expansion of hold and continued high financial rates”, as the latter are more likely to trigger centralized liquidation in the back. However, the decline in leverage does not mean that the increase will continue.
Turned 28 August into a single day net outflow
The United States spot bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $201.9 million on 28 August after nine consecutive trading days, with a marked reversal from the previous trading date of $242.3 million. Nevertheless, the combined net inflow of these funds was approximately $924.5 million during the week of 24-28 August.
After a weak financial flow, Bitcoin was unable to stand above $80 million. Reports indicate that bitcoin fell back on 29 August to approximately $775 million, a decline of about 2.9 per cent in 24 hours. This has allowed the market to begin re-testing whether the judgement of “a dominant rise in demand” remains valid.
A single-day outflow is not in itself sufficient to justify the continued withdrawal of institutional funds. If net outflows continue to occur in the follow-up, the support provided by spot ETF for the rebound in the current round will be further questioned; if funds revert to net inflows, this will reinforce the judgement that the spot buy will remain in place.
Inflation and US debt buy-back remain external variables
At the macro level, the July PCE price index in the United States increased by 3.7 per cent over the same period, while the core PPE rose by 3.3 per cent over the same period, both of which were above the Federal Reserve target of 2 per cent. Both indicators increased by 0.2 per cent. This means that there is still limited scope for the Federal Reserve to ease financial conditions in the short term.
QCP mentioned that the market once counted about 35% of the probability of a 25 basis point increase in September before Jackson Hall spoke. If interest rates are expected to continue to rise, the return on the dollar and the United States debt may be supported, thus placing pressure on the currency.
Another liquidity factor of market interest comes from the United States Treasury Department. Since September 9, the Ministry of Finance has increased the scale of long-term public debt buy-back operations from a maximum of $2 billion per buy-back to at least $4 billion, covering 10 to 30-year coupons, which are planned to last until November 4. This arrangement, which aims to improve the liquidity of old voucher transactions, is not equivalent to QE.
Next, market concerns remain two indicators: whether there has been a return to net inflows of spot ETF funds and whether futures hold-ups have gradually recovered at moderate financial rates. If prices continue to rise but leverage accumulates rapidly, the risk of subsequent volatility is magnified.