The Russian compliance-encrypted trading market is nearing launch. Under the umbrella of the Savings Bank of Russia, SberCIB Investment Research projects that the new market will be closed in its first year of operation, or between 3.5 trillion and 4 trillion roubles, with an exchange rate of approximately $46.4 billion.

The first year covered only about 20% of existing transactions.

This projection is based on a more conservative assumption that only part of the current Russian encryption deal will be transferred to the licensed market. According to Anatoly Popov, the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Savings Bank, the current level of encrypted transactions in Russia is approximately 50 billion roubles per day, or 18 trillion roubles per year.

SberCIB expects that about 20 per cent of its transactions in the first year will be relocated to compliance platforms. As a result, the first-year turnover cap was set at 4 trillion roubles instead of the “at least” level mentioned in some secondary transmissions.

  • First year projection ranges: 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion roubles
  • Projected 2028: 475 trillion to 5.25 trillion roubles
  • 2029 projection: approximately 7.5 trillion roubles

New regulations introduced with effect from September to set purchase ceilings for dispersed households

The Russian framework for compliance-encrypted transactions will enter into force on 1 September 2026. Under the Central Bank of Russia arrangement, both qualified and non-qualified investors can participate in encrypted transactions through authorized intermediaries.

However, ordinary investors need to pass the knowledge test before they can purchase the eligible encrypted assets. After the test, the annual purchase cap for an unqualified investor at each intermediary was 300,000 roubles, or approximately $3800.

Qualified investors are equally required to complete the test, but are not subject to the same ceiling. The actual tradable range of products also depends on the services provided by the intermediary and the accompanying rules.

BTC, ETH and USDT enter the list

At present, the list of assets that ordinary Russian investors can participate in organized transactions includes bitcoin, Ethera and USDT. However, the fact that this list still awaits a final regulatory decision does not mean that all intermediaries will be on the line immediately.

It is also clear from the current Russian framework that encrypted currency is still not allowed for general goods and services to be paid for in the country. In other words, the new system allows for regulated investment and trading activities rather than liberalizing the use of day-to-day payments.

The licence period lasted until July 2027.

Existing encrypted transaction service providers may continue to operate during the transition period but must complete their registration by 1 July 2027. This means that new markets may not be able to form complete supplies quickly at the beginning of the start-up, and the size of the first year of trade may also be affected by the number of entry points to the platform.

The Russian Savings Bank also plans to launch an infrastructure for encrypted transactions, hosting and digital asset custody by 1 December 2026. However, details on the scope of access for clients, the currency of support, costs and withdrawal rules have not yet been finalized.