McGuire: The Fed's statement may be reworded in the direction of the eagle, and the most likely increase is December

On 29 July, David Doyle, Chief Economic Research Officer of the McGuire Group, stated that the Fed would not adjust interest rates at the current meeting, but that this was the first time a decision seemed less clear this year, with an implied rate increase of about 35 per cent. The Walsh language and the voting of the members of the Commission will be crucial. In addition to the interest rate determination itself, the market may also be concerned about whether voting members disagree, whether the wording of the statement has changed, and the way in which President Walsh communicated at the press conference. If interest rates are maintained, negative votes are likely to emerge, and the number of negative votes will depend on the extent to which the wording of the declaration is adjusted in the direction of the eagles. The next policy action is still expected to be a possible increase in interest rates, most likely in December. The picture of unemployment in this statement is likely to be more optimistic. In June, it was said that there had been “no significant change”, but the data released since then indicated another small decline in unemployment. In addition, the risk of a further rewording of the statement would be in the direction of the eagles, with the possible addition of a phrase implying a tightening of policy in the future. Kim Xian