If the Fed maintains interest rates in September, or triggers a sharp increase in the rate of return on United States debt litres

On 30 July, the analyst Edward Harrison wrote that, although current market pricing showed the Fed’s probability of raising interest rates by nearly two thirds in September, the Fed was likely to opt for an unexpected alternative. If this were to happen, it would further push the United States Treasury debt yield curve, which would lead to dramatic market volatility. The article analyses that the Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh, in a press conference following the July conference, suggested that the recent self-restraint in financial market conditions had somewhat replaced the need for the Federal Reserve to act in July. Based on this logic, the market is likely to face the same game situation in September. The data show that, although the June core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index was lower than expected, the real return on 30-year United States Treasury debt rose to 2.98 per cent on Thursday. In addition, the forthcoming release of economic data may provide the Federal Reserve with a reason to look forward. On the one hand, the core PCE values are lower than market expectations; on the other hand, the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is recalculating the statistical approach to price increases, which is perceived by critics to be flawed and whose adjustment may have reduced inflationary pressure on the books。