FOMC STANDS STILL, RISK ASSET BREATHING WINDOW

According to news from 31 July, at the 29 July FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate on federal funds at 3.50 to 3.75 per cent, with a 9 to 3 vote. President Kevin Warsh reiterated the intransigence of the 2 per cent inflation target, noting that AI-related high-technology investments were an important support for a robust economic expansion. The three members clearly advocated an increase of 25 basis points for the first three opposing votes in the same direction since 2016, which the market interpreted as "hawks watching", indicating that while the extra boots had not fallen in the short term, the contraction had not changed. After the meeting, CME FedWatch showed that the interest rate increase probability for September had fallen from close to 80 per cent to about 65 per cent, that risk assets had a short breathing window, that mainstream encrypted assets, such as Bitcoin, had been partially lost after the news had landed, and that market sentiment had shifted from cautious observation to warmth. Based on front-line transaction data, the real willingness of institutional funds to come in is accelerating the recovery. In the case of the New Fire Group, the total off-site trade volume (OTC) in July has recently reached an all-time high of 257 per cent over June. By week, there was a significant increase in the volume of transactions during the week of July compared to the same week of June, with the volume of transactions in the week before and after the FOMC meeting increasing by approximately 79 per cent compared to the same week of June, reflecting the fact that, after the market digested macro-uncertainties, large amounts of money were accelerating the return to the real trading scene on the chain。