Fuda: The Fed may not have started the interest rate increase until December, but the possibility of a September increase has not been eliminated

On 31 July, Fuda argued that the Federal Reserve was more likely to delay the interest rate increase cycle until December, provided that inflation and labour market data remained strong. However, economic data and geopolitical developments over the next two months are likely to reintroduce the risk of inflation, so the possibility of a September hike has not been completely eliminated. More importantly, this decision highlights the policy characteristics of the Walshian era: in the absence of clear policy frameworks and forward-looking guidance, the Fed will rely more on immediate economic data and changes in the financial environment to judge。