AGENCY: UNITED STATES JULY CPI DATA OR EVIDENCE OF A DECREASE IN INFLATIONARY PRESSURES

ON 9 AUGUST, AN INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE MARKET GENERALLY EXPECTED THE UNITED STATES CPI TO INCREASE BY 0.1 PER CENT IN JULY, FOLLOWING A 0.4 PER CENT DECLINE IN THE RING RATIO IN JUNE. THE CORE CPI MONTHLY RATE FOR THE REMOVAL OF FUEL AND FOOD IS PROJECTED TO BE 0.2 PER CENT, WITH AN ANNUAL RATE PROJECTED AT 2.5 PER CENT, REPRESENTING THE SMALLEST YEAR-ON-YEAR INCREASE SINCE FEBRUARY. AFTER A WEAK REPORT ON NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT IN JULY ON FRIDAY, A SLOWDOWN IN INFLATION COULD HELP TO EASE INFLATIONARY ANXIETY WITHIN THE FED. PRIOR TO THAT MEETING ON 29 JULY, THREE OFFICIALS VOTED IN FAVOUR OF THE INCREASE. THE CPI REPORT MAY INDICATE THAT ENERGY-RELATED PRICE PRESSURES HAVE COOLED, AND THIS WAS SHARPLY INCREASED IN THE MONTHS FOLLOWING THE WAR BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND IRAN AT THE END OF FEBRUARY. AT THE BEGINNING OF JULY, RETAIL GASOLINE PRICES FELL TO A LOW POINT OF ALMOST FOUR MONTHS, BEFORE RISING TO MORE THAN $4 PER GALLON AT THE END OF THE MONTH. THE REPORT MAY ALSO INDICATE THAT, AS THE COST OF AVIATION FUEL HAS STABILIZED, THE PRICE OF AIR TICKETS HAS DECLINED。