Barclay: The dependence of the United States on price-sensitive buyers is a significant increase in the rate of return

On 12 August, Barclays indicated that the United States Treasury Buyer structure was shifting to a more value-oriented common fund, family and other private investors, a change that had helped drive the 30-year United States debt return to high levels over decades. In a report, strategists Demi Hu and Anshul Pradan wrote that, as long as inflation persisted, the buyers would be willing to hold long-term bonds for ever-increasing compensation. Two strategists say, "The buyer base of US Treasury bonds has changed. Since 2022, when the Fed began to reduce its holdings, the demand of official sectors such as foreign central banks and the Fed continued to weaken, making private investors marginal buyers that absorb new supplies. They estimate that private investors currently hold 73 per cent of the United States Treasury debt market, compared to about 50 per cent some 10 years ago. The Barclays combined elastic index, weighted by holdout, shows that "the dependence of the United States Treasury on price-sensitive investors has increased significantly over the past 10 years."。