Galaxy Research Manager: The probability of passing the CLARITY Act has been reduced to 10 per cent during the year, with political differences as the main obstacle

On 16 August, Alex Thorn, the research director of Galaxy, wrote that the probability of passing the 2026 CLARITY Act had been reduced to 10 per cent. In his view, the core obstacles currently facing the bill came more from politics than from policy, including the ethical limitations on government officials ' involvement in the encryption industry, opposition from the banking sector, particularly community banks, and the controversy surrounding the developers ' protection clause. Thorn stated that the Senate majority leader, John Thune, had arranged for the Senate to vote for the first time on the CLARITY bill after the end of its recess in mid-September, but that the window would then be about two to three weeks. If the senators are not able to initiate the advancement process immediately upon their return to Washington, the bill will require almost the entire working period before it can be adopted in 2026. At the same time, the US SEC, which had planned to advance two encryption controls, Reg Cripto and Innovation Exemptions, has recently been postponed again. Thorn argued that the Commission had previously delayed action, at least in part, by avoiding interfering with the negotiation of the CLARITY bill, and that, as the bill moved forward, the Commission might accelerate the independent advancement of the relevant regulatory framework. Thorn expects that, regardless of whether the CLARITY bill will finally pass, the SEC will probably publish RegCrypto, the "Innovative Exemption" or both in the coming weeks to months。