A trader with $10 million in US-Iraqi conflict deals

A trader today holds an additional $10 million and continues to bet on the probabilities of the US-Iraq conflict. Since its first tracking on 30 July, the probability of Polymarket’s “United States invasion of Iran by 2027” has dropped from about 27.63 per cent to 16.5 per cent. At present, the trader ' s cumulative investment in the forecast market is approximately $3211 million, an increase of 44 per cent over the first monitoring exercise and an average cost of 24.49 per cent of the current warehouse value of approximately $2163 million, at a loss of approximately $104.8 million. At the same time, its warehouse in HyperLiquid has been expanded from a single WTI line of approximately $13.22 million at the time of first tracking to approximately $17.606 million. This morning, the dealer synchronized the addition of approximately $2.867 million of WTI bills and $7.128 million of XYZ 100 blanks, and continued to hang some $2.664 million in crude oil at $79.06 to $8121。