Bitcoin is facing new risk signals, and there may be a wave of liquidations

THE ANALYST POINTED OUT THAT BITCOIN FACED NEW RISK SIGNALS AND ANOTHER WAVE OF MULTIPLE LIQUIDATIONS COULD OCCUR. FIRST, THERE IS A NEED TO FOCUS ON UNSETTLED CONTRACTS. UNDER THE UNITED STATES DOLLAR, THERE WAS AN INCREASE IN THE NON-REBALANCING CONTRACT, BUT A REAL DECREASE IN BITCOIN PRICES. A SIMILAR SITUATION OCCURRED IN 2022, ONE MONTH BEFORE THE FTX CRASH, WHEN MANY LEVERAGE POSITIONS WERE OPENED. IN 2026, THERE WAS ALSO A SURGE IN UNSETTLED CONTRACTS, INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE LEVERAGE POSITION WHEN THE TRADE PRICE OF BITCOIN RANGED FROM $60,000 TO $70,000. THE RECENT DECLINE IN UNSETTLED CONTRACTS DENOMINATED IN BITCOIN IS CLOSELY RELATED TO THE EMPTY HEAD, WITH MANY EMPTY POSITIONS BEING LIQUIDATED AND OTHERS BEING FORCED TO SETTLE AS A RESULT OF SHARP PRICE INCREASES. AT PRESENT, THE GAP BETWEEN MULTIPLE HEAD AND EMPTY HEAD IS VERY LARGE, WITH SOME 342,000 BITCOIN IN MULTIPLE POSITIONS AND 233,000 BITCOIN IN EMPTY POSITIONS. HISTORICALLY, SUCH LARGE-SCALE IMBALANCES HAVE OFTEN LED TO SHARP PRICE DECLINES. WHILE IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT BITCOIN WILL INEVITABLY FALL, THE DATA INDICATE THAT RISK FACTORS ARE INCREASING AND THE PROBABILITY OF LIQUIDATION EVENTS IS INCREASING。