ANALYST: WALSH COULD REKINDLE THE SEPTEMBER HIKE, BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT THE SEPTEMBER NON-FARM AND CPI DATA

On 29 August, StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that the Vosh speech on Friday night was considered to be quite hawkish. In terms of forward-looking guidance, Walsh said what the market expected him to say, that he did not believe in forward-looking guidance and refused to make an advance commitment to raise interest rates in September. But this did not stop the market from speculating that the interest rate hike might really be back on the table. With regard to inflation, Walsh stated that anti-inflation remained a clear priority and described it in some detail, although he added that he had confidence that core inflation was moving towards the Fed ' s goal. Overall, his speech was more hawk than the market expected. During a speech by Walsh Jackson Hole, the market significantly repricing the September Federal Reserve decision and the probability of the Fed increasing interest rates by 25 basis points jumped from 30 per cent to about 50 per cent. A non-farm employment report and a CPI inflation report will also be available prior to the September Fed meeting, with some secondary data release. Under the new Chairman, the Fed became more data-dependent. Given that recent United States employment reports have fallen short of expectations and that there are significant gaps, any further sign of weakness could seriously weaken the market ' s expectations of a September hike. Kim Xian