Morgan Chase has shown a greater probability of a decline in the U.S. stock under different non-farm outcomes

On 1 September, the Morgan Chase Market Intelligence Team concluded that the US non-farm employment data release on Friday made the GPI 500 more likely to be weak. The Morgan Chase team, headed by Andrew Tyler, predicted that “good news is bad news” would emerge from the employment data release, and that between 30,000 and 70,000 new jobs would be considered as the right place for the market. Analysts expect an additional 55,000 people. “More robust data on non-farm employment may push up bond yields and drag stock markets. The logic is that increased employment will lead to more consumption, and this overall dynamic will increase firm confidence in further recruitment,” the team stated in its report. “However, if the data fall significantly below expectations, such as a re-emergence of job losses, it may rekindle market concerns about stagnating.”