Clarity Act reduced the probability to 13 per cent in the course of the year, and the Senate's procedural vote will be held on 15 September

On 1 September, Polymarket, the prognosis platform, showed that there was an implicit probability that Clarity Act would be adopted and made law by 13 per cent in 2026, with a related contract transaction of approximately $11.5 million, a significant decrease from 82 per cent of the market price in February. The United States Senate is planning a procedural vote on the bill on September 15, and a motion to close the debate to launch the vote was put forward by the majority leader, John Thune, who usually required 60 votes. The forecasted market platform, Kalshi, gives a probability of a Senate vote of 91 per cent by 1 October, with the relevant market transactions exceeding $1.25 million. CLARITY Act proposes to establish a federal regulatory framework for encrypted markets, with the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sole control over spot and digital commodity markets, and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) responsible for some of the issues and exchange activities. The bill continues to face disagreements between officials and the encryption industry over conflicts of interest, the stabilization of currency gains and the decentrization of financial and non-trusted software development。