New Fire Institute: Kevin Warsh advocated less forward-looking guidance in Jackson Hall

According to the New Fire Institute, Kevin Warsh, in his Jackson Hole speech, advocated a reduction in forward-looking guidance for normal times, opposed the mechanical use of Taylor Rule or overreaction to single data, while maintaining the inflation target of 2 per cent, using short-term interest rates as the main policy tool and limiting balance sheet policy to periods of crisis. If this framework continues to move forward, market interest rates are expected to move from a “slow-slow adjustment for official speeches” in the past to a low-scaling and high-scaling of key data when published. For the encryption market, the New Fire Research Institute believes that, while overall liquidity has not significantly expanded, crypto may be more sensitive to short-end interest rates than long-end rates. The next 30 days will focus on non-farming on 4 September, CPI on 11 September and FOMC on 15-16 September, if data continue to be strong and interest-rate increases are likely to continue and, if data are weaker, may push the market “hawks to the top”。