Arthur Hayes: The US Federal Reserve expansion scale will inject liquidity into the encrypted market during the year of ETH up to $10,000

On 3 September, Arthur Hayes, a co-founder of BitMEX, stated in his latest article that his current macrotrade, the Arctic Star, was the euro-to-Japanese yen (EURJPY), and that the exchange rate was expected to drop from about 185 today to 140 or lower next June. In his view, the United States Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, was pushing for a weaker dollar against the yen, while at the same time leading back the financial flows of Japan and other Asian countries through policies and driving European assets under pressure. Hayes claims that France ' s high fiscal deficit and rising government debt, combined with its dependence on foreign capital, make it the most vulnerable segment of the euro area, and that French banks and the public debt market may face sustained financial outflows. Hayes further stated that Japanese enterprises were required to accelerate the return of overseas funds, which would boost the Japanese yen and could lead Japanese and other Asian investors to reduce their European assets. With the sale of French national and bank debt, French banks, particularly French banks of global importance, may reduce repurchase market (Repo) financing. Once French banks withdraw from part of the Repo market, it is possible to raise the cost of US Treasury debt financing and force hedge funds to deleverage, thus forcing the Federal Reserve in New York to expand repurchase market operations (RMPs) and to expand the Fed’s balance sheet at a rate of almost $10 billion a month. Hayes believes that this series of changes will eventually result in a "closure first, then water later" mobility chain: The fall in the EUURJPY will be a leading indicator of increased risk for French banks and the upcoming expansion of dollar liquidity; an increase in the Fed’s supply of dollars through RMP and FIMA buy-back mechanisms could further boost global French currency liquidity growth. He indicated that the encrypted market would be one of the fastest-beneficiary assets for this expansion of liquidity and suggested that investors focus on EURJPY's options, while maintaining the structural multi-heading position of the coin. Hayes also reiterated its price target at the end of 2026, with an expected cost of $10,000 for the ETH, $0.5 for Ethena (ENA) and $2 for ETHFI。