Goldman Sachs looks at gold up to $4,900 at the end of the year: derivative hedges or amplifiers, and the price of gold may be higher

On 3 September, Goldman Sachs Research predicted that the central bank would continue to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and would continue to provide structural support for gold, which was expected to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. According to Lina Thomas and Dan Struyven, analysts at the Goldman Research Department: “It is expected that gold will continue its recent increase in the second half of 2026, even if the increasing use of some of the derivatives linked to gold may increase the volatility of gold prices.” Goldman Sachs' report states: “As gold prices rise, it is approaching a part of the key right-to-trade price increase, forcing the purchase of the gold by the option-dealing marketers who sell these options to open up to them, thereby accelerating the increase.” The same mechanisms may also play a role in the decline. The report states: “On the other hand, the fall in gold prices may encourage marketers to set their prices evenly in reverse by selling their gold hold. Thus, the demand for derivatives is not just for additional purchases of gold, but may also form amplifiers: Pump-downs at the time of the increase are likely to intensify the increase, while pump-downs at the time of the decline may further press down prices. Goldman Sachs ' current target of $4,900 per ounce does not take into account this strong demand for gold derivatives. In the Agency's view, this factor increases the upward risk that the price of gold exceeds the target, but at the same time it means that the future gold market will face “greater two-way volatility”。