THE FED'S PROBABILITY OF RAISING INTEREST RATES INCREASED AND THE MARKET FOCUSED ON THE SEPTEMBER FOMC MEETING

The market is increasingly concerned about the probability of the Fed raising interest rates at the 15-16 September meeting. According to market pricing, the possibility of an interest rate hike in September has increased from about 33 per cent to 66 per cent. The economist Steve Hank predicted a rate increase of about 80 per cent. Kalshi traders believe that the probability of a 25 basis point increase in September is 55 per cent, while the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 46 per cent. The market is focusing on US employment data and Fed policy expectations. In his address to Jackson Hall, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh mentioned that 4.1 per cent unemployment and near-historical unemployment benefit applications showed that there was still room for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates or increase interest rates to the detriment of workers。